I checked the arbitrage amount increase of prediction markets @Polymarket and @Kalshi in the past two days, and found that the probability differences for several events are quite large, such as the Louvre, Fed interest rates, etc. I plan to research further.
This is my 7th article on learning arbitrage.
Arbitrage directions in prediction markets:
1. Cross-platform arbitrage on the same event: Trump winning, btc>100k, Fed rate cut
Arbitrage profit - kalshi fee 1% - gas fee = actual profit
2. Polymarket single platform: yes + no price deviation, winning semi-finals and championship related events, finalizing near-expiry certain events.
Real-time price difference scanning idea:
Connect 2 platforms web3 socket
Event matching
Price difference
Automatic order placement
Reminder: Don't gamble