On October 11, when Bitcoin plummeted from $126,000 to $101,500, 1,660,000 traders were forcibly liquidated due to dual rumors of 'increased tariffs + oracle malfunction.' However, the backend of Trade Rumour.app showed that its paid users' average loss rate was 67% lower than the market average. This platform, which pushed a 'high-risk rumor warning' 4 hours before the crash, is redefining the survival rules under extreme conditions with 'rumor risk pricing' — in the 2025 cryptomarket where trade frictions and technical failures intertwine, learning to use rumor filters to avoid devastating risks is more important than capturing upward opportunities.
1. New perspective deconstruction: A rumor value reconstruction model during panic periods
Trade Rumour.app's impressive performance during the October crash stems from its iterated 'three-dimensional rumor verification model,' which precisely addresses the industry's pain point of 'rumor noise overload' in extreme conditions. The core upgrade of this model lies in the addition of 'macro - technical - funds' triple cross-verification dimensions.
Macro policy verification layer: Connecting to the Federal Reserve's real-time inflation data interface and the global trade policy database, when Trump threw out the '100% tariff threat' on October 10, the system immediately retrieved correlation data from the crypto market during the 2018 tariff war (at that time, Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 reached 0.78), and combined with the current peak data of 30 billion dollars in derivative open contracts, it automatically raised the 'risk weight' of this rumor to 91 points (out of 100).
On-chain technology verification layer: In response to the Binance oracle failure incident on October 11, the platform urgently activated the 'multi-exchange price comparison engine.' When it detected an abnormal price difference where ATOM was quoted at 0.001 dollars on Binance and 2.872 dollars on Coinbase, it triggered the 'technical failure rumor' label within 1.2 seconds, freezing all trading signals related to ATOM.
Main fund tracking layer: By marking wallet addresses of institutions like BlackRock and Grayscale, it captured anomalous data of 12,000 BTC (approximately 1.4 billion dollars) moving into Binance before the crash, combined with derivative data indicating 'short positions surged by 1.1 billion dollars,' pushing out an early warning of 'institutional dump preparation.'
This model upgrade improved its rumor identification accuracy in extreme conditions from 82% in normal times to 89%, while similar platforms' accuracy generally fell below 50% during the same period. Coinbase's Singapore station data shows that as of October 22, the price of RUMOUR token remained at 0.00000072 Singapore dollars (equivalent to 0.00000061 dollars), and while affected by the market, its circulation remained stable at 99.7 billion, indicating that core users did not experience large-scale withdrawals.
2. Practical review: A guide to rumor arbitrage in the October crash
1. Risk avoidance case of tariff rumors
In the event of Trump's tariff threat on October 10, the hedging operations of platform users can be summarized in three steps:
Signal grading identification: Opening the platform's 'macro risk' module, the system has marked tariff rumors as 'red emergency warning' and added, 'Historical data shows that the average decline of altcoins within 48 hours after such events exceeds 25%.'
Cross-data verification: Entering the 'on-chain funds' section, confirming that Tether's reserves decreased by 800 million dollars in one day (implying stablecoin sell-off), while US crypto-related stocks fell by 4% before the market opened, multiple data points corroborate the risk signal.
Intelligent risk control execution: By triggering 'automatic position reduction' instructions through the wallet bound to the platform, it reduced high-leverage altcoin positions to below 5%, retaining only low-correlation assets like Bitcoin, successfully avoiding a subsequent 20% drop.
2. Arbitrage opportunities from technical failure rumors
In the chaos caused by the Binance oracle failure, some users realized reverse arbitrage through the platform: when the system pushed the 'ATOM price anomaly - technical failure rumor,' users quickly accessed the real-time price difference between Coinbase and Binance in the 'cross-exchange arbitrage' module. Upon confirming that the price difference was caused by a technical failure (not fundamental changes) and the platform provided a judgment of '90% probability of fault repair (within 4 hours),' they executed arbitrage operations through compliant cross-exchange interfaces, achieving about 15% risk-free profit after the fault was repaired.
3. Risk reassessment and price prediction: The investment logic of the post-crash era
1. The two newly added core risks
Model adaptability risk: This crash exposed the model's limitations in responding to 'composite black swans' — when tariff rumors and technical failures erupted simultaneously, signal push delays increased from 2.3 seconds to 4.1 seconds. Although still better than the industry average, it may miss the optimal operating window.
Liquidity mismatch risk: The trading volume of RUMOUR token in the last 24 hours was only 11.64 Singapore dollars. During the capital flight triggered by the October liquidation wave of 19.1 billion dollars, a liquidity trap emerged where some users faced 'wanting to sell but unable to' due to the inability to timely liquidate to pay for platform subscription fees, missing subsequent warning signals.
2. Price prediction in the post-crash era
Price prediction combined with three key variables: the outcome of the November APEC summit trade negotiations, progress on the Binance oracle incident investigation, and platform user growth data. Currently, the price of RUMOUR token is 0.00000061 dollars. In the short term, if trade easing signals are sent from the November APEC summit, market panic may dissipate, and the token price is expected to rebound to 0.00000070 dollars by the end of November, a rise of 15%; in the medium term, if the platform completes the upgrade of the 'composite risk response module,' institutional users may exceed 15,000, and the price in Q2 2026 could reach 0.0000012 dollars, a 97% increase from the current price; in the long term, if the 'rumor - arbitrage' model becomes a standard tool for institutions, the price could reach 0.0000020 dollars by the end of 2026, but one must be wary of regulatory risks regarding 'cross-exchange arbitrage' policy restrictions.
4. Industry reflection: The philosophy of information survival in extreme market conditions
The October crash once again proves that the 'right to survive' in the crypto market always belongs to those few who master the ability to filter information. The rise of Trade Rumour.app is not based on predicting price points, but rather transforming vague rumors into quantifiable risk indicators through technological means — this aligns with the '2025 altcoin survival rules' proposed by Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl: amidst the dual pressure of trade conflicts and technical risks, tools that can accurately filter noise are more important than leverage.
For ordinary investors, instead of getting tangled in 'where the bottom is,' it is better to first grasp 'where the risks are.' After all, in the crypto market, surviving a crash is necessary to wait for a rally, and what Trade Rumour.app is teaching the market is precisely this survival wisdom in extreme conditions.
@rumour.app and #TraderumourALT and #Traderumour