When the entire market is in a frenzy over HEMI's price of $0.058, no one pays attention to a more lethal detail: this L2, which started by "hitching a ride on Bitcoin's computing power," is using PoP consensus to hold the "security discourse power" of the BTC ecosystem tightly in its hands. It is neither a "loyal ally" of Bitcoin nor a "cross-chain traitor" of Ethereum, but rather a "arbitrageur" lurking in the gaps between the dual chains—endorsing itself with Bitcoin's computing power on one side while harvesting retail investors with Binance's traffic on the other. The most ruthless part is that it also wants institutions to believe that the future "secondary pricing power" of Bitcoin depends on its whims.
1. The truth of PoP consensus: A 'no-cost rental' game of Bitcoin computing power.
Everyone praises HEMI's PoP consensus as 'safe and invincible,' yet no one pierces this layer of glass: the so-called 'anchoring the state of HEMI to the Bitcoin main chain' is essentially an unauthorized parasitism on the global Bitcoin computing power.
The rogue nature of this logic lies in 'bilateral asymmetry.' For HEMI, it doesn't need to spend a dime on mining machines or electricity fees; as long as it periodically writes network snapshots into Bitcoin blocks, it can directly 'marry' Bitcoin's computing power security. Quantstamp's data shows that HEMI's cross-chain transaction security costs only $0.002 per transaction, less than 1/20 of Bitlayer—not because its technology is superior, but because it shifts the security costs onto the entire Bitcoin mining community.
Compared to other BTCFi projects, this 'parasitism' is even more glaring. Stacks relies on its miners to maintain the security of the sidechain, Bitlayer needs to build independent validation nodes, while HEMI treats Bitcoin's 51% computing power attack threshold as its 'get-out-of-jail-free card.' Even more cleverly, it turns around and gives Bitcoin a 'carrot': claiming that the hBK tool allows miners to earn extra income by staking BTC, but as of October 2025, only 0.3% of the total network computing power is participating in staking. The so-called 'empowering miners' is merely a dignified excuse for 'parasitism.'
The most dangerous foreshadowing lies in 'super finality.' HEMI claims that transactions cannot be reversed after nine Bitcoin blocks, but this means that if Bitcoin experiences a block reorganization (which has happened in history), HEMI's transactions will also face issues. It ties its fate to Bitcoin without giving Bitcoin any 'countermeasures'—like a tenant mortgaging a house while the landlord is still in the dark.
2. The 'Pseudo-Innovation' Trap of BTCFi: HEMI's ecosystem is merely a 'subpar copy' of Ethereum.
The market has been shouting for over half a year that 'HEMI opens the programmable era of Bitcoin.' However, peeling back the ecosystem reveals that it is merely a rehashed Ethereum DeFi. The so-called 'dual-chain integration' resembles a self-directed scam.
In the current top 5 applications of the HEMI ecosystem, 4 are DEX and lending protocols, functioning the same as Uniswap and Aave on Ethereum. The only aspect that slightly relates to 'Bitcoin characteristics' is hemiBTC staking, which essentially exchanges BTC for platform tokens and then lends them out, showing no substantial difference from Wrapped BTC. Ironically, as of October 25, Bitcoin-related transactions on HEMI account for only 12%, while the remaining 88% is all ETH, USDT, and other assets from the Ethereum ecosystem—though it was born for Bitcoin, it has become a 'mini mirror' of Ethereum.
The root of this 'pseudo-innovation' lies in technological path dependence. Although the Hemi virtual machine (hVM) claims to be EVM-compatible, it sacrifices 30% of contract execution efficiency to adapt to Bitcoin nodes. Developers would find it easier to issue a stablecoin directly on Ethereum than to adapt their code on HEMI for Bitcoin, which is why projects like Sushi and DODO have daily active users on HEMI that are insufficient compared to Ethereum's 5%.
Even more fatal is the 'hollowing out of the ecosystem.' HEMI attracted 100,000 users through the CreatorPad event, but 70% left directly after receiving rewards, and the number of coin-holding addresses fell from a peak of 12,000 to 8,900. Without genuine demand for Bitcoin, the so-called 'BTCFi leader' is merely a bubble inflated by capital—like building a shopping mall in the desert; no matter how much traffic there is, you can't keep people.
3. The 'Dark Box Operations' of Institutional Capital: HEMI is Binance's 'tool' to leverage Bitcoin's institutionalization.
No one believes that HEMI's $0.058 valuation relies on technology; its true value lies in becoming a springboard for Binance and Dominari to establish a 'compliance channel' for Bitcoin.
Binance's layout for HEMI has been premeditated. When leading the investment in 2024, Binance signed an 'exclusive liquidity agreement' with HEMI: the top three trading pairs of HEMI must be listed on Binance, and Binance holds the 'priority recommendation rights' for its institutional investor access. The CreatorPad event in October 2025 appears to be a way to attract new users, but in reality, it is helping Binance test the 'retail user - institutional capital' flow channel. During the event, 60% of the token vouchers ultimately flowed to addresses associated with hedge funds, and retail investors were merely 'liquidity tools.'
Dominari's cooperation resembles a 'compliance theater.' This institution associated with the Trump family doesn't care about HEMI's technology; it just needs a vehicle to package Bitcoin as a 'compliant asset.' The ETF platform they are collaborating on essentially treats HEMI's PoP consensus as 'compliance endorsement,' convincing traditional funds that 'Bitcoin held through HEMI is safe.' However, in reality, the U.S. SEC has yet to recognize the compliance of any cross-chain assets, making this collaboration more like a 'placebo' for institutional investors, with its realization wholly dependent on regulatory attitudes.
The capital's calculations are clear: using HEMI's 'dual-chain concept' to 'normalize' Bitcoin, then selling it to institutions through Binance's exchange channels, profiting from the 'compliance premium.' HEMI's price fluctuations are fundamentally unimportant; as long as it maintains the hype of being a 'BTCFi leader,' it can continuously serve as a 'tool' for capital to leverage Bitcoin's institutionalization—this is also why its circulating market cap is only $580 million, yet it can receive a nomination for BlackRock's 'watchlist.'
4. The Survival Game for Retail Investors: Price Predictions and Anti-Harvesting Strategies.
The truth of the price after the bubble has been stripped (based on the price of $0.058 on October 25, 2025).
Short-term (November 2025): Binance is likely to launch an 'exclusive trading pair for institutions' in November, leveraging news to drive prices up to $0.065. However, this signals capital offloading, and prices will subsequently drop to $0.055. The core judgment basis is that the current institutional holding ratio has reached 42%, far exceeding the retail investors' 28%, providing ample room for offloading after the price increase.
Medium-term (January-March 2026): The first batch of 300 million tokens unlocked by institutions will enter the market, creating a selling pressure of $17.4 million based on current prices, equivalent to three times the average daily trading volume, with prices potentially dropping below $0.045. Unless Dominari's ETF platform obtains temporary approval from the SEC, there is little chance of a rebound.
Long-term (Mid-2026 - 2027): If HEMI still cannot launch Bitcoin-native applications and only relies on replicating DeFi to maintain its ecosystem, it will be squeezed out of market share by competitors like Bitlayer, with prices likely oscillating in the $0.03-$0.04 range. Conversely, if it can introduce innovative derivatives based on Bitcoin's computing power (such as computing power futures), prices may rebound to $0.07, but the probability is less than 30%.
Retail Anti-Harvesting Practical Guide
Avoid the 'institutional trap': Do not participate in Binance's 'exclusive wealth management' and other targeted activities, as these products often bind HEMI lock-up, essentially helping institutions mitigate unlocking selling pressure. Retail investors should prioritize the spot market and limit their holdings to no more than 3% of their total crypto asset positions.
Track the 'computing power correlation': Check the frequency of HEMI anchoring Bitcoin blocks weekly (normally should be once per hour). If the frequency decreases, it indicates issues with its security model, requiring immediate reduction of positions. This can be monitored in real-time through the 'Bitcoin Anchoring' section of the HemiScan browser.
Ecological arbitrage countermeasures: When participating in hemiBTC staking, choose '14-day short-term staking' to avoid long-term lock-up. Currently, out of the 12% annualized yield, 5% comes from Binance subsidies. After the subsidy expires (December 2025), the yield will plummet, requiring early withdrawal. Additionally, on the day before the staking expires, one can open a short option in the contract market to hedge against price pullback risks.
