1. Bitcoin Drops to 107,735 USD, Support at 106,600 USD Amid Liquidation Concerns
• BTC fell 0.8% to around 107,735 USD after hitting a peak of 110,499 USD the previous day. The market is facing "dense liquidation zones" near 111,000 USD, according to CoinGlass, and may test support at 106,600 USD if US-China tensions escalate (Trump mentioned canceling the meeting with Xi Jinping). The crash on October 10-11 still haunts, with strong hedging through put options (strike 115,000/95,000 USD expiring October 31).
• Highlight: On-chain stability with 97% supply in profit; Changelly forecasts a 7.44% increase to 118,833 USD by the end of the day if it surpasses 108,000 USD. Citi maintains a year-end target of 133,000 USD but warns that the bull run may end if support is breached.
2. Ethereum Drops 3%, But Record ETF Inflow of 141.66 Million USD
• ETH dropped 3% to around 3,884 USD (below 4,000 USD), affected by the AWS outage impacting Coinbase and MetaMask. However, the ETH spot ETF recorded an inflow of 141.66 million USD on October 21 – the highest of the week, led by Fidelity FETH (59.07 million USD) and BlackRock ETHA (42.46 million USD). Grayscale ETH also saw an inflow of 22.58 million USD after a series of outflows.
• Positive point: UK FCA lifts the ban on ETH ETNs for individuals, expanding products on LSE; the Fusaka upgrade in November increases data blob by 8x for L2. CoinDCX forecasts a target of 4,350-4,500 USD by the end of the month if it exceeds 4,000 USD.
3. Altcoins Plummet, XRP Enters Strong Accumulation Phase
• 8/10 top coins fell: BNB -4.55% to 1,072 USD; SOL -1.99% to 184 USD; XRP -4.50% to 2.35 USD (but 300,000+ wallets hold 10k+ XRP, a record, indicating strong accumulation – large breakout forecast according to Coinpedia); DOGE -3% to 0.19 USD (80% probability of ETF approval by year-end); ADA decreased along with Layer 2 (-5.15%, Starknet -7.01%, Mantle -9.22%). TRX increased thanks to support from MoonPay Wallet.
• Regulation: Fed Payments Conference discusses crypto, stablecoins, and AI; G20 calls for global coordination; OCC allows US banks to offer crypto services; XRP ETF deadline from Grayscale (October 18) and 21Shares (October 19) is approaching.
Macroeconomic Context
• The market is under pressure from Trump tariffs (potential reduction from 50% to 15% with India, but canceling the meeting with Xi raises concerns); Fed rate cut probability at 91.9% (25 bps in October); deep fear sentiment (29) due to volatility and profit-taking. Total volume 238 billion USD (slight decrease), DeFi 13%; altcoin season index 64/100 – Q4 could surge if BTC green September repeats (only 5 times in 15 years). Note: Crypto is high risk, DYOR before investing. If you need specific coin analysis or charts, let me know!
