The U.S. Federal Reserve just hit a major roadblock — and it couldn’t have come at a worse time. With the government shutdown stretching past 22 days, the Fed has reportedly lost access to ADP’s private employment data, one of its most trusted tools for tracking early labor market trends.
This means the central bank is now preparing for its next interest rate decision without two of its main data sources — ADP’s private payrolls and the official government jobs report, both currently unavailable due to the shutdown. In other words, policymakers are flying blind while trying to guide the world’s largest economy.
According to sources familiar with the situation, tensions flared after Fed Governor Christopher Waller allegedly leaked ADP employment numbers ahead of schedule. The incident led ADP to cut off the Fed’s data access completely, sparking a mini data crisis within the central bank.
💬 “This is the worst possible timing,” one analyst said. “The Fed is trying to judge if the economy is cooling without seeing the numbers that confirm it.”
Now, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is reportedly working to rebuild ties with ADP and restore access. But until then, the Fed is left navigating without its usual indicators — relying instead on secondary data, financial market signals, and sentiment gauges.
This unexpected blackout highlights how dependent the Fed is on both government and private data — and how quickly that foundation can crumble in moments of political or operational tension.
If the shutdown drags on, the upcoming FOMC meeting could mark the first in over a decade where policymakers must make critical decisions without a complete picture of the economy.
Markets are already reacting, with traders speculating that the Fed might hold off on any major moves until the data flow normalizes.
👉 The big question now:
Can Jerome Powell and the Fed make the right call when they’re completely in the dark?
