Dogecoin remains stuck in a tightening range just under $0.10, but a fresh update from analyst Lars suggests the meme coin could be on the verge of a decisive move — if one key confirmation shows up. Price action and the pivot to watch Over the last 24 hours DOGE briefly pierced $0.10 before retreating, leaving the $0.098–$0.100 band as the clear pivot between a continued squeeze and a breakout. Bitcoin inflows are still the primary force behind broader market momentum, but Dogecoin has so far failed to fully follow that tide. How DOGE behaves around that narrow resistance will likely determine whether the market remains range-bound or shifts into a stronger directional move. What Lars updated — and why it matters On X, crypto analyst Lars (handle @Larskooistra_) said he’s adjusted the starting point of the current trading range in the TCT framework he’s been tracking for weeks. That tweak changes how the compression structure is read and, in his view, points to a potential distribution setup — but only if a “TCT model 1 distribution confirmation” appears. As he put it: no confirmation, no trade. The charts he shared show DOGE climbing into a pink resistance band between $0.098 and the low-$0.10 area, sitting above a series of rising local lows on the 1-hour chart. Lars’ projection envisions one more push up into a third tap of that band before a likely rejection. The 4-hour view mirrors this outlook on a broader timeframe, marking the zone as a “decisional range” to monitor for distribution patterns. Two ways to read the recent weakness Lars also described a recent trade attempt to short DOGE during what he called an extended TCT distribution after a bearish break of structure at the New York open. That move initially looked like confirmation of downside, but he warned there are two possible explanations: either the breakdown was a genuine push lower (potentially driven by market makers), or it was a manipulation-driven sell-off tied to accumulation in Bitcoin. The distinction matters for how traders will interpret any follow-through. Technical backdrop: mixed to neutral Technically, the picture is mixed. At the time of writing 16 indicators leaned bearish while 14 were bullish, and the RSI sits around a neutral 61.45 — not extreme, but not overwhelmingly bullish either. That reinforces the idea that traders should wait for clear confirmation around the $0.098–$0.100 band before committing to a directional trade. Bottom line Dogecoin’s fate in the near term hinges on how it resolves the $0.098–$0.100 pivot. Lars’ updated TCT read suggests a possible distribution and rejection after one more test of resistance, but he’s clear that traders should wait for the distribution confirmation before acting. Until that confirmation arrives, expect compressed price action and an emphasis on risk-managed, confirmation-based trading. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news