$ETH Market Review and Key Level Analysis
1. Core Oscillation Range Confirmation
In the past 72 hours, the market has continuously oscillated in the 3705-4109 range (about 404 points up and down), and the current price is slightly above the mid-axis of the range:
Strong Support Zone: 3800-3820 (This Morning's Low of 3819 + 23rd's 3833 Platform)
Core Resistance Zone: 3903-3934 (Yesterday's High + 24 Points Breakthrough)
2. Bull-Bear Momentum Game Signals
Bullish Dominance Indications:
This morning's rapid rebound from 3819 to 3894, coupled with three consecutive tests of 3705 without breaking, shows strong support at the 3700-3720 bottom.
Potential Bearish Rebound Point:
Yesterday's High of 3903 is only 9 points away from the current price. If it fails to attack 3900 three times in a row, it may trigger short-term selling pressure.
Subsequent 48-hour Trend Simulation
Scenario One: Strong Breakthrough Market (Probability 45%)
- Trigger Condition: Stabilize at 3903 and then break out with volume past the previous high of 3934
- Target Path:
1️⃣ First Target: Test 3950-3970 (October 22nd pullback platform)
2️⃣ Second Target: Hit the psychological barrier of 4000 (transaction volume needs to increase to 150% of yesterday's)
- Key Operating Signal:
After breaking 3934, if it pulls back and does not break 3910, one can add positions in the same direction.
Scenario Two: Fluctuating Decline Market (Probability 55%)
- Warning Signal: Long upper shadow/K-line entity shrinkage appears near 3900
- Downward Risk Path:
1️⃣ Shallow Adjustment Support: 3860-3880 (this morning's rebound starting area)
2️⃣ Deep Pullback: If it breaks 3840, it may test the 3806-3820 defense zone again
- Trend Reversal Critical Point:
If it stays below 3790 for more than 2 hours, be alert for the restart of the 3700 defense battle.
Core Decision Suggestions
1. Position Strategy:
Currently at 3894, it is not advisable to chase the rise; it is recommended to observe the pressure situation in the 3900-3910 area.
Short-term long positions can take profit in batches at 3895-3905 while keeping some positions to observe the strength of the breakout.
2. Key Risk Control Position:
- Long Stop Loss: Effectively break below 3860 (closing price determination)
- Short Stop Loss: Hourly line stabilizes at 3940
3. Breakthrough Game Point:
If it breaks out with volume past 3934, it can pull back to 3915 to go long again, target 3980±20.
Deep Warning
Pay special attention to today's and tomorrow's handover timing:
Historical data shows that from 16:00-17:00 (institutional rebalancing) and 22:00-24:00 (night market liquidity peak), sudden changes are likely to occur. Currently at 3894, it is at a critical point for bulls and bears. It is recommended to adopt the 'confirm the breakout and then follow up' strategy to avoid the risk of dual-directional stop loss.
