(1) Short-term trading (1-3 days)
• Entry conditions:
◦ Long position: Price stabilizes at $0.24 and trading volume exceeds $5 billion/day, target at $0.26, stop loss at $0.228 (risk-reward ratio 1:1.5).
◦ Short position: Price falls below $0.23 and long-short ratio drops below 0.7, target at $0.215, stop loss at $0.238 (risk-reward ratio 1:1.2).
• Position control: Single currency position not exceeding 15% of total funds, leverage not exceeding 5 times.
(2) Medium to long-term layout (1-3 months)
• Core logic:
If the ETF is approved or Musk promotes the implementation of DOGE payment applications on the X platform, prices are expected to replicate the parabolic rise of 2021. From a technical perspective, after breaking through the ascending wedge resistance at $0.29, the first target is $0.34, with a long-term target pointing to $3.94 (based on historical pattern calculations).
• Positioning Strategy:
• Incremental Buying: Build positions in three batches within the $0.22-$0.23 range, with total positions not exceeding 5% of total assets.
• Hedging Operations: Use 2x call options to hedge spot positions, keeping the premium cost within 8% of the position value.
(III) Risk Control Key Points
1. Dynamic Take Profit:
Short-term long positions should take profit at $0.25 for 50%, and move the remaining stop-loss up to $0.235; medium to long-term positions should take profit at $0.30 for 30%, and another 30% at $0.40, holding the remaining positions until ETF approval or technological upgrades are implemented.
2. Liquidity Management:
Reserve more than 30% of USDT as margin to avoid liquidation due to the accumulation of funding fees. Currently, perpetual contracts settle every 8 hours, with a daily funding cost of about 0.24% of the position value at 10x leverage.
3. Sentiment Monitoring Tools:
Use Santiment's 'Social Dominance' indicator to monitor community sentiment. When this indicator exceeds 50% and the price stagnates, it may indicate a risk of correction.
IV. Conclusion
Currently, Dogecoin is at a critical decision-making period: short-term pressure from Federal Reserve policies and regulatory risks may maintain market fluctuations; medium to long-term depends on the results of ETF approvals and technological upgrades. For investors with lower risk tolerance, it is recommended to wait for a clear breakout above $0.24 or a drop below $0.23 before entering; aggressive investors can trade within the range by selling high and buying low, while allocating a small amount of call options to capture the 'asymmetric returns' from ETF approvals. Regardless of the chosen strategy, strict stop-loss and position control are key to survival—daily volatility in the cryptocurrency market can exceed 20%, and any negligence may lead to significant capital loss.