Bitcoin shows mixed signals with strong institutional interest but significant volatility, leading to important insights.
1. Market drivers: institutions and whales are accumulating currencies, creating a positive sentiment in the market, supported by positive technical signals and expectations of monetary policy easing.
2. Selling pressure: the activation of an inactive whale and recent net outflows introduce potential selling pressure and volatility in the market.
3. Macro Risks: Major economic challenges, including impending inflation data and Federal Reserve policies, along with warnings from analysts, pose potential risks for price corrections.
Positives
1. Institutional Flows: Growing confidence from institutions is shown through BlackRock's purchase of 107.8 million dollars in Bitcoin, T.Rowe Price's application to create an actively managed digital assets fund, and JPMorgan's allowance of using Bitcoin as collateral.
2. Whale Accumulation: The number of 'dolphin' wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 Bitcoin increased by 681 thousand Bitcoin in 2025, indicating sustained positive interest, which is also supported by a smart trader opening long positions valued at 87.4 million dollars.
3. Positive Technical Indicators: The 7-day exponential moving average is trending above the 25 and 99-day exponential moving averages, accompanied by a positive event in the MACD indicator, suggesting strong upward momentum in the short term.
Risks
1. Inactive Whale Activity: An inactive whale wallet that hasn't been used for 14 years, containing 4,000 Bitcoin (442 million dollars), activated and transferred 150 Bitcoin from it (16.6 million dollars), raising concerns about potential selling pressure and increased market volatility.
2. Outflows and Volatility: The rising interest in options contracts indicates record levels and a net outflow of over 66 million dollars in Bitcoin, leading to potential selling pressure and increased market uncertainty, with some analysts predicting a drop to 104 thousand dollars.
3. Overall Uncertainty: Upcoming US inflation data (expected to be 3.1%) and the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in decision-making due to the 'information vacuum' may lead to significant market volatility and affect investor confidence.
The community's direction
1. Mixed Sentiment: Despite the prevailing optimism in the community due to large institutional inflows and expectations for a more dovish Federal Reserve policy, there is a sense of caution due to the activation of a long-dormant whale wallet and warnings of a potential price correction below 100 thousand dollars.
