The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1%. This is a downward adjustment of 0.2 percentage points compared to the IMF's forecast from January.

The fund states that this downward adjustment is primarily due to economic problems arising from conflicts in the Middle East. Without these problems, the forecast would have been raised by 0.1 percentage points to 3.4%.

IMF lowers growth, raises inflation forecast 2026

The report also shows that the global growth forecast for 2027 remains unchanged compared to the World Economic Outlook update from January 2026.

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At the same time, the forecast shows that global consumer price inflation is expected to rise slightly in 2026, before decreasing again in 2027. It is believed that inflation will be 4.4% this year, and drop to 3.7% by 2027.

The economic consequences vary in different parts of the world. Growth prospects for emerging markets have been lowered by 0.3 percentage points for 2026. However, the forecast for developed economies has hardly changed.

'There is a wide variation between countries in the reference forecast. Even though the revisions of growth and inflation are quite small globally, the effects are much larger for conflict areas and vulnerable economies. This is particularly true for the growth and development economies that import raw materials and are already sensitive,' the report states.

The IMF also addresses more risks. If energy prices rise more and longer, global growth could be just 2.5% in 2026.

At the same time, inflation could rise to 5.4%. If there are more serious disruptions, for example, if energy infrastructure is damaged where there is conflict, growth could drop to about 2%. Then inflation could exceed 6% by 2027. Growth and development economies are hit almost twice as hard as developed economies.

The IMF also states that in its latest World Economic Outlook, it uses a 'reference forecast' instead of a regular baseline forecast. They do this because it is difficult to create stable assumptions when the situation is uncertain.

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