BlockBeats News, April 20th. The core market contradiction shifted from a single geopolitical conflict to a dual-track tug-of-war between "policy uncertainty + spillover disruption from war." On one hand, the Federal Reserve maintains a highly conservative stance on the interest rate path, with both Powell and Brainard clearly linking decisions to inflation and conflict outcomes, demonstrating that policy cannot provide a clear easing anchor. On the other hand, the White House hopes to reshape market expectations of future rate cuts through the framework of "balance sheet contraction + rate cuts hedging," creating a typical disconnect between policy foresight and current reality.At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz has shifted from a brief opening back to closure, with significant military friction and a record low for ship passage. The U.S. has released strategic reserves and Iraq has signaled supply recovery, essentially hedging the supply shock but unable to eliminate shipping risk premiums. Negotiations are also showing mixed signals: the U.S. is pushing for talks, Iran denies involvement, and with military conflict escalation, the "ceasefire" has shifted from a stable expectation to a short-term tactical tool.As a result, cross-market funds are showing a clear misalignment in flows: energy and transportation risks are driving up inflation stickiness, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to pivot in the short term. However, at the political level, easing expectations are simultaneously strengthened, leading to a disconnect between rate path expectations and the actual liquidity environment. In this structure, risk assets are not simply under pressure but are entering a phase of "liquidity contraction + expectation support" with oscillating repricing, with the market relying more on event-driven factors.Turning to the crypto market, BTC maintains a range-bound structure, with a clear high-intensity liquidation and liquidity accumulation zone forming around the $78,000 level, while a support zone continues to appear in the $72,000–73,000 range, leaning towards repeated turnover within the range. Against the backdrop of unresolved macro uncertainty and a diverging policy path, BTC remains fundamentally an indicator of risk appetite: if the energy conflict escalates further and raises inflation expectations, the upside liquidity will turn into a bull trap; conversely, if negotiations make substantial progress and lower the risk premium, funds will only be able to retest the high liquidity area.