There's a strange kind of quiet in the markets right now....
Not the quiet of stability. The quiet of people waiting.
The Strait of Hormuz - a narrow stretch of water that carries roughly 20% of the world's oil - is closed again. A US cargo seizure happened today. Two ships came under fire. The ceasefire window expires April 22.
Nobody is celebrating. Nobody is panicking yet.
That in-between space is what makes this moment feel heavy.
On one side, there's still a chance things de-escalate. Talks are happening. Deadlines create pressure, and pressure sometimes produces deals.
On the other side - oil is already responding. And when oil moves, everything moves. Inflation. Interest rate expectations. Risk appetite. Crypto.
Bitcoin is sitting at $75K with the Fear & Greed index at 27. Markets are already nervous before anything dramatic has happened.
That's the part worth paying attention to.
Not the noise. Not the headlines.
The fact that this much tension is already priced in — and we haven't even reached April 22 yet.
Whatever happens next, it won't stay local.
It never does.