Crypto markets head into the week on fragile footing after a roller-coaster weekend of geopolitical headlines. Sentiment swung sharply after an initial announcement that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen pushed oil prices down and lifted risk assets — including bitcoin and the wider crypto market. That rally reversed when Iran reportedly fired on ships attempting to transit the strait on Saturday, and the U.S. seized an Iranian-flagged tanker on Sunday. With the temporary ceasefire scheduled to expire mid-week, traders are now watching whether crypto’s risk-on momentum can survive another energy-driven shock. The key technical level traders are watching is clear. Luke Nolan, senior ETH research associate at CoinShares, told CoinDesk the market’s follow-through depends on bitcoin holding its ETF cost basis, roughly $74,000. “With Hormuz reopening, oil is off and equities have caught a bid back to ATHs, pulling crypto higher with it,” Nolan said. “Follow-through now hinges on BTC decisively holding above its ETF cost basis (~$74k), which would confirm the risk-on rotation already visible in flows.” ETF flows have turned positive for three straight sessions; a fourth consecutive inflow day and a decisive hold above $74,000 into the ceasefire deadline would validate the rotation thesis and likely reinforce the rally. Conversely, a break below that mark would likely reintroduce volatility across crypto markets. What to watch this week - Geopolitics: Any developments around the Strait of Hormuz or the ceasefire timeline. - Bitcoin: Whether BTC can stay above the ~$74,000 ETF cost basis. - ETF flows: Continued positive inflows would support the bullish case; a slowdown or reversal would raise caution. Expect heightened sensitivity to energy and geopolitical headlines alongside technical market signals as the week unfolds. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news