1/ Why is the market extremely concerned?
CPI data is one of the important macroeconomic indicators that the Fed uses to assess inflation and make monetary policy decisions.
With a forecast of ~3% YoY — still far from the Fed's target of ~2% — if the data comes in higher than expected or does not cool down, the Fed may be more cautious in cutting interest rates.
In the current context, the market is pricing in two interest rate cuts from the Fed — the first could be as soon as next week, followed by one in December, each by 25 bps.
Due to recent data being somewhat 'quiet', tonight's report carries greater weight in guiding the market.
2/ Perspective for the crypto/trader community
With the crypto market, if the Fed lowers interest rates or indicates it will do so — it is usually a positive signal, as the opportunity cost of investing in crypto will be lower.
Conversely: if inflation exceeds forecasts and the Fed may delay interest rate cuts or tighten further — then 'risk' assets like crypto could be negatively impacted.
Monitor closely the announcement time and the market's immediate reaction, as significant volatility is very likely.
If you are trading futures/leverage — set clear stop-loss and manage capital tightly.
If you are holding long-term — use this report to reassess your strategy: whether to accumulate more or wait for market reactions before taking action.
The CPI report for September 2025 tonight is a very important benchmark. Forecast around 3.1% YoY, core CPI ~3.1% — meaning inflation remains high, and the Fed has much work to do. The direction of inflation and the Fed's response will strongly impact the asset market — including crypto.