Do you remember that round of declines in 2022?
Bitcoin dropped from 68,000 all the way down to 33,000, rebounding to 48,000 in between, and then it really started the main downtrend, probing down to 16,000. The market is never a straight line; rebounds are just a part of the downtrend structure, which is also why many people can't understand 'why sometimes it's bullish and sometimes it's bearish.'
The current trend is similar. The price is still operating within the established range, with a nearly 20% rebound over the past two weeks, and the highs and lows are continuously rising, but after hitting key resistance, there has been a rapid pullback. Structurally, around 70,000 is an important support; if it is lost, a retest of 60,000 or even lower cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, the daily chart is approaching a death cross, which, if confirmed, often signifies the beginning of a more complete downward trend.
On the news front, there is a short-term window of uncertainty. For example, if geopolitical negotiations release positive signals, the market might surge again. However, it is important to note that such positive news is often priced in ahead of time, and when it actually materializes, it can easily become a peak. This is a typical case of 'buy the expectation, sell the fact.' Therefore, such rebounds are more suitable for viewing as opportunities to exit or set up short positions, rather than blindly chasing long positions.
And $SOL is currently still in a major adjustment phase. Since peaking at 295.83, the overall trend can be understood as a systematic correction of the previous rise from the low to 295.83, taking a longer time and with a significant magnitude.
The price rebounded after pulling back to the Fibonacci key level around 69.6, but compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum, the strength is noticeably weaker. It currently resembles a technical repair for the decline from 149 to 69.6, rather than a trend reversal.
From a structural perspective, the 66–69 range is the most critical support zone in the short to medium term, and it is currently the only remaining important support area. Once it effectively breaks down, the adjustment level is likely to further amplify and evolve into a comprehensive correction of the larger cycle upward (from the low to 295.83), at which point both time and space will be significantly extended.
Additionally, on-chain risks are also worth monitoring.
#AAVE Recent events indicate that even if the agreement itself has no loopholes, as long as the underlying assets are manipulated, systemic risks may still be triggered, ultimately leading to capital withdrawal. For ordinary investors, making money has never been the hardest part; the key is to keep the funds safe for the next market cycle.
Looking at the structural changes of several altcoin lines:
Circle ($CRCL ) is clearly suppressed by emotions in the short term, due to the lawsuit expectations triggered by the Drift Protocol incident combined with market concerns about profitability. However, the underlying data is not weak; the issuance of USDC is still rising, and with the earnings report window approaching, fundamentals and expectations are in a tug-of-war stage. In terms of trend, 49.9 to 136.64 belongs to the main upward segment, and currently, it resembles a digestion of this rise; the rebound since 84.26 is more of a technical repair, and a subsequent equal-level pullback is still needed. Only after the structure is completed can it meet the conditions to initiate a new market cycle. The overall rhythm is slow, and the phase low point is more likely to gradually form over a longer cycle.
$S confirmed the breakthrough of the symmetrical triangle at the 4-hour level earlier. After breaking through, it pulled back to turn into support, showing a smooth upward trend, and the structure was realized quite standard.
$TAO subnet has clearly cooled down recently. The SN3 incident not only drained liquidity but also directly hit confidence, currently presenting a state of 'good news, no emotion' — positive signals are hard to amplify, and the market lacks continuity. It is weak in the short term, but there is still space in the medium to long term.
$CELO has a relatively healthy structure, still running along the upward trend line, with pullbacks having support. As long as key support is not broken, the bullish pattern remains unchanged, and the pullback still has participation value.
$SSV shows signs of strengthening. After the Aave-related incident affected LDO, some funds have switched and are gradually concentrating on SSV, with the potential to break out into a larger market trend.
Overall, the market rhythm is slowing down, and the structure is becoming more complex. The differentiation among altcoins is intensifying, emotional driving is weakening, and funds are more inclined towards structured and supported targets. Rather than chasing short-term fluctuations, it is better to patiently wait for more certain positions, manage positions, and control risks, which is far more important than frequent operations.
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, entering the market requires caution, personal opinions, no advice, for sharing only.