The ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran is nearing expiration, and after nearly 12 hours of tugging and extreme pressure, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament has ultimately indicated through a third party that he will arrive in Islamabad as scheduled. At this stage, Trump’s forces are pressing, and the trading volume in the risk market has briefly surged, with various funds betting on the direction they believe in. If we consider favorable upward spikes, this wave of news-driven market activity is indeed approaching its end.
Last Saturday, the Defi market experienced a shocking incident where hackers exploited a cross-chain bridge vulnerability to forge cross-chain information, depositing a non-existent rsETH into AAVE to collateralize and borrow 83,000 Ethereum, resulting in an actual loss of over 200 million dollars. In just three days, over 8 billion dollars in assets flowed out, and so far, no parties involved have taken responsibility for the incident; ironically, the Aave protocol itself has no issues.
The remedy for this incident has now escalated, with arb urgently freezing over $70 million in hacker assets. In the impossible triangle of security-compliance-decentralization, arb decisively chose the first two. Without absolute security, all decentralization is a false proposition. Unlike the community sentiment that's sky-high, the cooked duck in General Jin's pot has flown away~~~
The data front shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net inflows for five consecutive trading days, with a single-day inflow of $664 million last Friday, marking the highest data this month, and a net inflow of $238 million yesterday. Ethereum has seen net inflows for eight consecutive trading days, with last Friday's inflow at $127 million and $67.8 million yesterday. Can the sustained net inflows of ETFs turn into a driving force for a market reversal? We might see results within a week; let's keep an eye on it.
Objectively, Uncle San believes that the ultimate reversal of the market depends on the improvement of macro liquidity. Continuous accumulation by institutional funds may bring short-term rebound expectations and boost hopes for a market reversal, eventually evolving into FOMO for chasing high positions during the rebound, followed by the main players distributing after a washout. Therefore, in the short to mid-term, as long as rebound expectations have not completely ended, and with the new highs in the US stock market bringing in ETF fund inflows, Uncle San has yet to see a complete change in the fundamentals.
The recent Hong Kong conference hasn't brought any new highlights; the feedback from my assistant is that the same old faces were present, discussing the same old matters. The crypto market is a place that needs new narratives; narratives drive capital accumulation, which then generates real wealth effects, further attracting macro players, resulting in an expansion effect in the circle. Clearly, Trump's presidency has worsened the favorable development environment that the market should have had, even though he promoted the ecological application of stablecoins.
That's all for today, staying low-key.
Back to the charts:
Bitcoin: Will 75,000 points become the major bottom on the hourly chart, or will 70,000 points become the major bottom on this round of the four-hour chart? We'll see the results this week. The market's high was at 76,000 points last time it broke, and after briefly testing 78,000 points, it formed the first four-hour high since the rebound from the cycle low of 66,000 points, with both highs and lows synchronously declining. So if Uncle San's view on the short to mid-term market is limited to a rebound, the likelihood of the daily candle breaking the previous high of 78,000 points is already low. Conversely, if it's to siphon off the last wave of precise short liquidity, the chance of a spike to trap longs has significantly increased. In short, be cautiously bullish; the market still lacks a bottom that will make everyone despair.
Ethereum: Trend structure linked with Bitcoin; the four-hour support level is at 2030 points.
