Recently, an obscure coin suddenly entered the top 10 in terms of price increase, surging over 500% within a month, and that coin is H. While everyone is questioning why this project surged, I will use on-chain data to analyze the reasons behind this surge.

1. Data contradictions under the surge
On the surface, H's story is very enticing: it aims to establish a digital identity protocol for identifying deep fakes and verifying authenticity. Official website data shows nearly 9 million total users, nearly 500,000 verified users, and 128,000 transactions processed in the last 24 hours.

But when we delve into the on-chain data, contradictions arise:

  • The daily increase in active accounts is only 20-30, with a peak of only 58.

  • The number of holding addresses is extremely scarce - only 5,652 on the Ethereum chain, and only 2,110 on the BSC chain.

  • The distribution of holdings is abnormal - the number of holding addresses in each category shows a bizarre pattern of spikes up and crashes again.

A key question: If the user base is so large, why are there so few on-chain holders? If growth is so rapid, why are there so few new accounts added daily?

2. Fatal Flaw
The essence of price reflects the supply and demand relationship. When we examine H, we discover more concerning issues:

The initial circulating supply of the coin is 2 billion pieces, but within less than four years, the supply will expand over 5 times. This means that continuous selling pressure will always suppress the price.

Comparing its price trend, it has risen nearly 1500% relative to the altcoin market since the end of August, making this divergence even more suspicious. The price surge under massive inflation does not align with basic economic principles.

3. The Truth Revealed by the Contract Market
The real price surge is not in the spot market, but in the perpetual futures market:

  • The spot trading volume is only 58 million USD

  • The trading volume of perpetual contracts exceeds 1 billion USD, which is 20 times that of spot.

  • The open interest has reached a historical high of 250 million USD

  • The funding rate remains positive, indicating extreme bullishness in the market

This indicates that the current price is entirely driven by leveraged funds rather than real spot demand.

When these leveraged positions are closed, the price is likely to pull back quickly.


The surge of H lacks solid on-chain data and is likely a short-term frenzy driven by leverage or an attempt to pump and dump.

In summary, data does not lie. The current strength of H is largely driven by exchange contract trading and short-term speculation, rather than improvements in fundamentals. Massive inflation, sparse on-chain users, and contracts dominating prices are all risk signals that we need to be highly vigilant about.

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