High-level oscillation, waiting for directional choice
Why is it oscillation? On one hand, strong fundamentals (staking, institutional accumulation) and long-term trends have limited the space for a deep drop. On the other hand, the short-term technical aspect (approaching historical highs), overheated long leverage (high funding rates), and capital outflows (decline in stablecoin market value) have suppressed the momentum for an immediate strong rise. The long and short factors form a confrontation here.
Key positions:
Upper resistance: $4,900 (historical high). A successful breakout of this level will greatly boost market confidence and may open a new unilateral upward trend.
Lower support: $4,000 (psychological level) and $3,800 (recent important support level). If broken, it may trigger a deeper correction to around $3,500.
Advice for operators:
Short-term traders: You can engage in high selling and low buying within the aforementioned oscillation range. Be sure to set stop-losses, especially be wary of the risks brought by high leverage. Closely monitor changes in funding rates; extremely high rates are one of the signals of a short-term peak.
Long-term investors: The oscillation period is a good time to allocate in batches. You can divide the funds into multiple parts and buy in batches near the support level. The core is to focus on the long-term value of ETH (such as ecosystem development, ETF capital flow, etc.), rather than short-term price fluctuations.
All participants: Pay close attention to whether the historical high point of $4,900 can be broken with volume, or whether there will be a volume drop below the support of $3,800. This will be the most important signal for the market to choose its next direction. #ETH $ETH
