#ETH The short-term outlook for Ethereum is more inclined towards a "strong oscillation" pattern (within days to a week or two), and the conditions for a direct strong one-sided rise or fall trend are not yet sufficient. However, after the oscillation ends, the probability of a breakout to the upside is increasing.

🔍 Key positive factors (supporting forces)

Macroeconomic and risk sentiment has significantly improved:

The China-U.S. trade relationship has eased: The U.S. side is "no longer considering a 100% tariff increase on China," a significant development that has greatly boosted the sentiment for global risk assets. Cryptocurrency, as a high-risk asset class, directly benefits.

Global stock markets have surged: The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 4000 points, and the Nikkei Index has reached new highs, indicating a return of risk appetite, with funds likely spilling over into the crypto market.

Expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve: A 25 basis point cut this week is almost a certainty, and expectations of liquidity easing are long-term positives for cryptocurrencies. Standard Chartered Bank even optimistically believes that if the situation continues to improve, Bitcoin may never fall below $100,000, setting an optimistic tone for the entire market.

Positive signals in the funding landscape:

ETF capital inflow reversal: Yesterday, the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of $133.25 million, which is a very important signal. It reversed the previous trend of sustained net outflows, indicating that institutional funds are beginning to look favorably and buy ETH at this position.

Whales are firmly bullish: The much-watched "100% win rate whale" has continued to increase its position during pullbacks, with total holdings reaching $412 million, and the unrealized gains are substantial. This type of steadfast holding behavior by "smart money" provides strong confidence support for the market.

The industry fundamentals are strong:

Institutions are continuously increasing their holdings: Data shows that the total holdings of 70 Ethereum treasury entities have exceeded 6 million ETH, accounting for 5.01% of the circulating supply. This long-term, strategic accumulation behavior has built a solid bottom for ETH prices.