While $BTC is trying to break through levels above $80,000, the macroeconomic situation globally is becoming increasingly tense. Will the inflows into ETFs outweigh the pressure from oil and a strong dollar? Let's break it down. 🧐
🛡 Macroeconomics: The main hurdles
According to CoinDesk's 'Daybook', the market is facing three challenges:
Oil factor: Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are keeping energy prices at highs. This inflates inflation, causing risk assets (crypto) to temporarily lose their appeal.
Dollar Index (DXY): The bounce back to 98.75 indicates that investors are still seeking refuge in cash.
Selling pressure: Anthony Scaramucci notes that despite demand from ETFs, large holders continue to take profits, following the logic of a 4-year cycle.
🇯🇵 Japan's 'joker' of 2026
Don't forget about Japan, where tectonic changes are currently happening:
End of the cheap yen era: The anticipated rate hike by the Bank of Japan to 1% could trigger capital outflow from risk assets.
Tax revolution: The expected drop in crypto income tax to 20% is a powerful signal for Japanese institutions.
Hedge against devaluation: For locals, BTC in the BTC/JPY pair has already hit all possible highs, becoming the main refuge from the weak national currency.
📊 Technical outlook and forecast.
We are in the second year after the halving — historically, this is the time for the strongest moves.
Resistance level: $82,500. If we hold above this, the path to $100k is wide open. 📈
Support level: ETF funds have created a strong 'concrete floor' in the $72,000 - $75,000 range.
Conclusion: The temporary slowdown is just a breather before the next phase. Geopolitics may create noise, but the fundamental demand for BTC through ETFs remains unwavering.
💬 Question to the community: How do you act in such moments?
1️⃣ I'm stacking up on every mini-correction.
2️⃣ I'm waiting for a resolution in the Strait of Hormuz ⛽
3️⃣ Holding until October, as Scaramucci advises 💎
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