The rebound of the big pie a few days ago indicates one thing: the market no longer has upward momentum.

This Monday morning, the big pie (Bitcoin) briefly broke through the resistance level of 116000 (with a maximum spike up to 116400), as the main forces completely aimed at harvesting the highly leveraged shorts. This was indicated by the clearing map from a few days ago, which showed that as long as the market stays above 116000, it can harvest almost all short positions in the market, as shown in Figure 1.

So, the rise is not a real rise; it is merely to harvest the opponents' positions. This also determines that the market's main funds temporarily have no long-term goals, and making a quick profit and exiting is the best strategy under the current circumstances.

If the bullish buying is strong, under the high certainty of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points again today, Bitcoin should break through the resistance level of 116,000 and continue to push upward, aiming for the target of 120,000. At the very least, it should stabilize at the level of 114,000, accumulate strength in the range of 114,000---116,000, and then gradually move upwards. Instead of choosing to retreat hastily, it directly fell below 113,000.

Tonight, the Fed's interest rate cut is a done deal, stimulating Bitcoin, but there is no strong buying support, indicating that the market is no longer interested in the hype around the dollar's rate cut. Without real support, it won't go far in the short term, remaining in the range of 106,000---116,000. Or from a longer time perspective, the crash on October 11 has already shaken the foundations of the upward trend. It has been less than 20 days since October 11, and the market's vitality cannot recover in such a short time.

From the market's downward perspective, there could have been a longer period of adjustment (especially for altcoins) with fluctuations, which was completed in just a few hours on October 11. In fact, the bears did not gain much from it. From the current market performance, the Fed's second interest rate cut is so certain today that one shouldn't expect any stimulation from the upcoming two months or the rate cut in December. The market has fully priced in the dollar's rate cut, and most of the upward space in the bull market has already been exhausted. Capital in the market has been cleaned out, and the upcoming market can only be a disordered large-range fluctuation for quite some time, making trading more difficult. Don't think that a slight rise in the market means Bitcoin will reach 140,000-150,000 or Ethereum will hit 6,000; one must look at the facts.

Even with the US-China trade negotiations, both sides claiming to have achieved great wins will not provide a greater stimulus to the financial market, as neither side is likely to soften directly.

As the remaining days of the 25 years decrease, the probability of Bitcoin reaching its peak of 126,200 in October forming the top of this bull market is increasing.