Cardano (ADAUSD) had been trading within an ascending channel since the low of the bear cycle on December 26, 2022. That was also the time when the weekly relative strength index was at its lowest (reaching 30.00). The latest bullish signal was the golden cross on the weekly, the first of its kind.
However, prices failed to break through the trend line of the previous lower highs of the pattern and refused to return to its low (the trend line of the higher highs), which was temporarily broken during the crash on October 10. However, the market recovered immediately and importantly, the weekly relative strength index found support in its three-year high area, which was the best entry point for buying in the bull cycle.
As long as the price remains within the ascending channel, the bull cycle remains alive. Confirmation of further upward movement, and thus a new bullish leg, technically only comes if the price breaks the trend line of the lower highs again. If that happens, we expect a higher peak at 1.382 of the Fibonacci extension (each higher peak appears to be lower, 1.786 to 1.5 fib) at $1,900. A weekly candle closing below the 200-week moving average (the orange trend line) is likely to confirm a new bear cycle.
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