This is just an observation. I’m not a fan of patterns, repetition of history, etc. Every year the world and the market are different, but if we draw some basic parallels, we can notice something interesting on the logarithmic Bitcoin chart.

Each time over the last three Federal Reserve leadership cycles in the U.S. — either after the appointment of a new Fed Chair or the continuation of a term — Bitcoin has, almost “magically,” crashed by around 58–74%, with or without clear fundamental reasons.

The term of Jerome Powell officially ends on May 15, 2026 (and in theory, a new Fed Chair should take office the next day).

It’s also worth noting that around May 14–15, there is expected to be a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

So if we add 2 + 2, this could become a strong convergence point for a major move in Bitcoin, where several narratives align:

⬇️Potential positive sentiment around the possible de-escalation/end of the Iran conflict

⬇️A bullish move potentially into filling the CME gap around $82,000–$84,000

⬇️Appointment of a new Fed Chair

⬇️“Sell in May and go away” seasonal tendency

⬇️A potentially manufactured positive narrative from the U.S.–China leadership meeting

Retail could get heavily positioned long, and then the market could trend down through the summer.

I don’t think we’ll see a full drop to $32K (-58%), because that would give too many people an obvious discount entry. A more realistic downside target, in my view, would be around $52K–$49K, which would be much cleaner from a liquidity perspective.

Still, many factors are pointing toward a possible downside move in May. This is no longer just imagination.

What happens to low-quality altcoins in that scenario is hard to even estimate. $BTC #BTC