After its rebound earlier this year, Bitcoin's future direction remains uncertain. Crypto investor and author Michael Terpin recently stated that the current Bitcoin cycle may not truly bottom out until October 2026, with a target price of around $57,000.

Returning to the $100,000 mark remains challenging.

In an interview with Cointelegraph, Terpin pointed out that this prediction is based on the average retracement pattern of past market cycles (which typically takes about a year from peak to trough). Looking back at the last peak, Bitcoin surged to an all-time high of over $126,000 in October 2025; if this is followed, the market may still be in a correction phase.

Despite Bitcoin's rebound of over 29% from its low of around $60,000 in February, currently hovering around $78,000, Terpin believes that it will not be easy to regain a foothold above $100,000 and restore bullish momentum.

He pointed out that the market needs several key factors to be present simultaneously, including continued inflows of funds into spot ETFs, sustained institutional buying led by Michael Saylor, and the market avoiding a chain reaction of liquidations triggered by a sharp decline. Without these conditions, the probability of Bitcoin breaking through its all-time high in the short term remains low.

In addition, he also mentioned that if the price falls below the 200-week moving average (200W MA), it may become an important bottoming signal before the next round of market activity resumes, indicating that the market has not yet fully cleared out the risks.

Macroeconomic pressures looming

The overall crypto market is still constrained by the macro environment, including oil price volatility, escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and liquidity tightening caused by high US interest rates.

Ahead of this week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the market widely expected the Fed to hold rates steady. According to the CME FedWatch tool, as many as 99.5% of traders predicted that interest rates would remain unchanged. Market analysts also pointed out that this may be Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's last meeting, making the policy direction even more closely watched.

This rebound may be a "false breakout".

Conservative voices have emerged regarding the recent rebound. Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland points out that the lack of market fervor and speculative buying typical of a bull market suggests insufficient investor confidence, indicating it may only be a short-term rebound. He believes the market generally expects Bitcoin to experience a "second dip" before October this year.

Technical indicators are weakening, and there is still room for further decline in the short term.

From a technical perspective, if Bitcoin continues to be pressured by the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), the price may fall further. Analyst Rekt Capital points out that the next potential support level is around $65,710.

In addition, some analysts believe that the market may first test the $73,000 level in the short term, indicating that the market is still in a consolidation phase.

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