Yesterday, the trading volume spiked to $25.4 million, and today it dropped back to $10.8 million, a real haircut. The price is still hovering around 0.0082, not much of a drop, but volume has already shrunk by more than half.

This trend is quite typical.

After a volume spike, if we see a decrease in volume and price stays flat, it indicates that the funds that came in yesterday didn’t continue to add to their positions, and there’s no new money stepping in. If it were really a trend reversal, volume should be expanding, with buy pressure coming in waves. Right now, it feels more like short-term funds tested the waters and found few buyers, so they pulled out.

From 8 million two days ago to 25.4 million yesterday, it looks like some big players were pulling the strings.

But today, volume plummeted to 10.8 million, less than half of yesterday. This divergence in volume and price, with price moving sideways but volume shrinking, usually indicates strong selling pressure above. To push higher, we need more funds, but it's clear the money isn't keen to keep flowing in.

That's how low-cap coins roll; a few hundred grand can pump out a big green candle, creating the illusion of a volume spike. But if there’s no continued buy support, the price that gets pushed up will quickly get hammered back down by sell orders when they unlock.

#pixel The market cap is only $6.3 million, and with 91 million coins unlocking each month, at the current price, that's about $750,000, equivalent to needing to absorb 12% of the market cap in new supply every month.

That spike in volume yesterday could be someone trying to gamble on a rebound after two days of gains, or maybe the project team or big holders were testing the waters to gauge market support. The result is clear: once it was pushed up, no one was there to catch it, and volume shrank immediately.

If we continue to see shrinking volume and price holding sideways in the coming days, there’s a high probability it will test support levels downwards. If volume can pick up and the price breaks above 0.009, then there might indeed be some funds positioning. But in this state, it feels more like a flash in the pan.

There are still 22 days until the unlock on May 19th, and that's another 91 million coins.

Historically, there’s always been selling pressure released before and after an unlock. As we approach the unlock date, will holders start unloading early? That’s another variable.

In the short term, shrinking volume is a clear signal. Without sustained buy orders, it's tough for the price to keep climbing.

The above is just my personal view and doesn’t constitute any investment advice!