⚡ MACRO & GEOPOLITICS – ASIA SESSION OPEN (27/04): TENSIONS REMAIN ELEVATED 🏛️🌍🔥
• Fragile peace: Iran has proposed prioritizing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and pausing conflict first, leaving nuclear talks for later. However, chances of success are estimated at only ~30%, as Donald Trump is pushing for immediate nuclear resolution. 🏛️🚫
• Energy prices surge: WTI crude has climbed to around $96, while natural gas is up +7%, reflecting deep market concerns over prolonged supply disruptions from the Middle East. 📊⛽
• Military pressure: The United States Navy continues maximum pressure operations, intercepting Iranian-linked vessels globally. Washington shows no signs of easing or lifting its naval blockade. 🚢⚓
• Spillover risks: The Israel–Hezbollah conflict is heating up again, with deadly drone strikes raising fears of a broader regional escalation. 🛡️💥
• Cautious markets: Despite a slight drop in the CBOE Volatility Index and a mild rebound in U.S. equities, overall sentiment remains “wait and see” ahead of key data releases like Fed rate decisions and GDP figures. 📈⚓
👉 The biggest variable this week: whether direct talks between Washington and Tehran can ease tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
