Right now, the crypto market feels like the calm before the storm. While the price is just hovering, we can see the 'bowstring being pulled' for a powerful move. Let's break down the details so we don't get tangled up by the market.
🌍 What's happening around here?
Last weekend threw some logs onto the fire of uncertainty:
Geopolitical tension: A new failed assassination attempt on Trump, halting peace negotiations and Iran's tough demands on the US keep the markets on edge.
Game of big players: Last week showed how skillfully market makers 'shake out' excess passengers, collecting stop orders both ways.
🟠 Bitcoin: Preparing for a resolution
We're in a prolonged consolidation, and the breakout will be loud. Right now, we're holding short positions (bets on the decline), as we see signs of an upcoming correction.
Main scenarios:
'Taking profits' and down: The price $BTC could 'jump' to $82,000–$84,000 to lure in buyers, then sharply reverse.
Fake growth: A small spike to $80,000 and a quick drop to $71,000–$73,000.
Direct pullback: A drop straight from current levels to $68,000. While this seems too easy for the crowd, we keep this option in mind.
🔵 Ethereum: Weakness against the leader
Ether looks shaky right now. While Bitcoin dominates, $ETH it's hard to show strength.
Our position: We're still holding a short with an average entry of $2410. Risks are minimal, as the stop-loss is already in the 'no-loss' zone (at the entry level).
Targeting: If the market goes as planned, we're expecting Ether at $2200, $2100, or even $2000.
💵 Dollar Index (DXY) — our compass
Remember the golden rule: if the dollar (DXY) is rising, crypto usually falls.
Right now, the dollar index is on standby for news. We're watching to see if it does a 'helicopter': first a small drop (which will give crypto a false sense of hope), and then a sharp spike up. That would be the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin.
📅 Important dates of the week (it’s going to be hot!):
These events will make the price jump:
Tuesday (17:00): US consumer confidence report.
Wednesday (21:00): Main event! The US Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. Jerome Powell's speech will determine the market's fate for the coming weeks.
Thursday (15:30): US GDP and inflation data.
Friday (16:45): Manufacturing activity reports.
🛡 Tips:
We're in shorts: Our plan is to profit from the correction hinted at by the charts. We're already in positions and just waiting for execution.
Advice for newbies: This week, volatility will be insane. If you're unsure — it's better to just watch. Don’t try to guess the price movement during Powell's speech on Wednesday — it's a lottery.
The main thing is control: Don’t risk large sums and always use stop-losses.
Do your own research before trading!
Protect your deposits and trade with a cool head! 📉📈
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