Sun Ge ultimately didn’t show up at the WLFI luncheon at Mar-a-Lago. The over $40 million market cap of the frozen WLFI tokens pulled back the project team's curtain of shame. The lawsuit from the California federal court has completely pushed Sun Ge into opposition against Trump. All this hustle and bustle is for profit; it's the same for everyone, even more so for ordinary folks. Rising to a level like Sun Ge and Trump is one thing, but what about the average person?
The situation with Sun Ge is still hanging in the balance; whether it will land safely is a big question mark. From the project team's perspective, engaging big players for ecosystem development and market promotion makes total sense. However, from an investor's standpoint, if they've put in cash, expecting some profit-taking seems reasonable too. But the project team threatening to permanently burn tokens to pressure Sun Ge not to pursue legal action is definitely the wrong move. Even if they did burn everything, does Sun Ge really need that cash?
The crypto market has been quite abnormal lately; it's rare to see multiple rounds of four-hour OI and CVD rising simultaneously over the years, but with a negative funding rate. Large funds are absorbing retail investors chasing long positions through iceberg orders, leading to a persistent divergence in the price action. Currently, we have a four-hour double top divergence, combined with a strong distribution pattern of an ascending wedge; a significant drop or reversal is just a thought away.
The data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a net inflow for 11 consecutive trading days, with the last trading day seeing a net influx of $14.4 million. Ethereum spot ETFs had a net inflow for 10 consecutive days before a brief outflow, with the last trading day seeing a net inflow of $23.4 million. Structurally, Bitcoin's OTC buying is more robust, correlating with the new highs in the US stock market, but the sustainability of both remains to be seen.
Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, after Alpha leveraged up to harvest liquidity, the old-school altcoins have started a local rally, and some tokens have seen decent single-day gains. It’s essential to emphasize that the market hasn't reached the explosion point of local altcoin rallies that we recognize; even as a token's holding starts to rise with volume-price agreement, by the time we react and chase the pump, the rally might already be over. At this point, all the gambling thoughts with the whales could make us a part of market liquidity. It’s wise to keep our hands steady and temporarily exit the market.
Rumors about recent internet regulations are likely true, as many colleagues have lost international contact for over a week. Looking at it from another angle, it’s not all bad; previously, the news on X was murky, with many teams misleading retail investors with fake news to manipulate their judgments. Those who can get results in the capital markets certainly have their own core logic, and taking advantage of this environment to refine our skills and develop a sustainable trading logic is more real and valuable than any external factors.
Back to the charts:
Bitcoin: After yesterday's false breakout, the price retraced, forming a double top divergence structure on the four-hour chart. On the four-hour level, we need to pay attention to two key levels: the first is the closing point for tomorrow's trading; if it's below 77,000, it indicates that the bulls are facing resistance in the short term, and the structure strengthens. We also need to watch if we can break and hold above 80,600; if we go up, it means the rebound is over and a reversal could happen at any moment, although historically, such ascending wedge reversal structures have rarely occurred.
Ethereum: The trend structure is linked to Bitcoin, with hourly support at 2,300 and four-hour support at 2,160.$BTC
