🚨 A NEW DOCUMENT JUST DROPPED:

Goldman just updated their oil forecasts today and the numbers are not pretty.

This is probably the most important tweet you’ll read today.

If you have any amount of money invested in the market, read every detail.

Here’s what they’re actually saying:

Base case: Brent hits $90 by Q4 2026. Up from their prior forecast of $80.

That’s just the base case.

Adverse scenario: $100+ if Gulf exports only normalize by end of July.

Severely adverse scenario: nearly $120 if Hormuz flows don’t recover above 70% and permanent capacity damage stays.

The reason this matters is the math underneath it.

Goldman estimates 14.5 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf production are currently offline.

Global inventories are drawing down at a record pace of 11 to 12 million barrels per day in April alone.

They’re projecting the market swings from a 1.8mb/d surplus last year to a 9.6mb/d deficit in Q2 2026.

That’s not a tight market. That’s a historically extreme supply shock.

And the only scenario where oil comes back toward $80 is if Gulf exports fully normalize by mid-June with no lasting capacity damage and strong OPEC and US supply responses. Goldman calls that the benign case.

Now think about what this means for inflation.

We already got a CPI print at 3.3% with energy up 10.9% in a single month.

The April print hasn’t landed yet.

Neither has May or June.

Goldman is telling you right now that the oil shock hasn’t peaked, it’s ongoing.

And if Hormuz doesn’t fully reopen on schedule the market hasn’t even begun to price what comes next.

The Fed meets tomorrow, and they can’t cut into this.

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