Goldman just updated their oil forecasts today and the numbers are not pretty.
This is probably the most important tweet you’ll read today.
If you have any amount of money invested in the market, read every detail.
Here’s what they’re actually saying:
Base case: Brent hits $90 by Q4 2026. Up from their prior forecast of $80.
That’s just the base case.
Adverse scenario: $100+ if Gulf exports only normalize by end of July.
Severely adverse scenario: nearly $120 if Hormuz flows don’t recover above 70% and permanent capacity damage stays.
The reason this matters is the math underneath it.
Goldman estimates 14.5 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf production are currently offline.
Global inventories are drawing down at a record pace of 11 to 12 million barrels per day in April alone.
They’re projecting the market swings from a 1.8mb/d surplus last year to a 9.6mb/d deficit in Q2 2026.
That’s not a tight market. That’s a historically extreme supply shock.
And the only scenario where oil comes back toward $80 is if Gulf exports fully normalize by mid-June with no lasting capacity damage and strong OPEC and US supply responses. Goldman calls that the benign case.
Now think about what this means for inflation.
We already got a CPI print at 3.3% with energy up 10.9% in a single month.
The April print hasn’t landed yet.
Neither has May or June.
Goldman is telling you right now that the oil shock hasn’t peaked, it’s ongoing.
And if Hormuz doesn’t fully reopen on schedule the market hasn’t even begun to price what comes next.
The Fed meets tomorrow, and they can’t cut into this. $USDC $BZ $CL
Bitcoin has now closed 4 consecutive weeks in green for the first time since April 2025.
- Weekly MACD has flipped bullish. - Price has reclaimed April 2025 lows. - RSI has reclaimed the long-term support line.
The next key level for Bitcoin is $80K, and a clean breakout above it will confirm a reversal.
A rejection from $80K will push BTC towards the $74K support zone.
There are several key events too this week, which will decide the next BTC move.
- US and Iran indirect talks - BOJ decision on Tuesday - FOMC and earnings report on Wednesday - ISM PMI data on Friday.
Looking at the macro, several things are aligned together, which has historically been bullish for crypto.
- The Russell 2000 is hitting new highs. - ISM has printed 3 consecutive months above 52. - New Fed Chair could be confirmed in a few weeks. - US M2 supply is at new highs - The Fed is injecting liquidity into the markets.
All it needs now is a BTC breakout above $80K with rising Coinbase Premium, and we could see a broader crypto market rally. $BTC
𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘆: Trade day (wait for 9:30am)✅ 𝗧𝘂𝗲𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆: Trade day (wait for 9:30am)✅ 𝗪𝗲𝗱𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆: Trade day (wait for FOMC)⚠️ 𝗧𝗵𝘂𝗿𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆: Trade day ✅ 𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆: Trade day (wait for 9:30am)✅
May: US-Iran ceasefire attempt - fails within 2 weeks May: Fed cuts rates for the first time in 2026 May: S&P bounces to 5,400 on rate cut euphoria
June: Oil spikes above $140 after Iran resumes Hormuz blockade June: S&P reversal - drops back below 4,800 June: First major US bank reports negative equity quarter
July: Fed emergency meeting July: QE announced under a different name July: Bitcoin above $120,000 July: Congress starts formal war authorization debate on Iran.. $BTC $CL $BZ