Analysts anticipate that gold prices will finish the year below current levels, but they have raised their forecasts for 2026 due to strong demand from central banks and ongoing global economic uncertainty.
"Gold prices are mainly driven by investor sentiment towards the US dollar and the level of US debt. I think concerns about this are fading as geopolitics and the midterms take center stage. I expect gold to trade below $4500 by the end of 2026," reported Investing.com Michael Antonelli, a market strategist at Baird Private Wealth Management.
According to a Reuters poll involving 31 analysts and traders, the median gold price is expected to hit $4916 per troy ounce in 2026, marking the highest annual forecast since Reuters began tracking this data in 2012. The survey indicates this price reflects an increase from the $4746.50 estimate issued three months ago and a sharp jump compared to last year's forecast of $3000.
Gold prices, which skyrocketed to a record high of around $5595 per ounce at the end of January, have since dipped about 11%. This drop followed military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran at the end of February, as investors sought to secure liquidity.
Despite recent volatility, analysts expect a broader gold rally to resume after easing geopolitical tensions. However, its traditional role as an inflation hedge is in question due to expectations of tighter monetary policy, as rising energy prices may prompt central banks to maintain high interest rates — typically a negative factor for non-yielding assets like gold.
"A key catalyst for significant gold growth would be a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, especially if it leads to a decrease in real yields. From a technical perspective, we would also like to see gold move back above its 50-day moving average and the mid-April peak, which would signal the end of the consolidation phase," said Keith Lerner, Chief Investment Officer and Chief Market Strategist at Truist.
Key factors supporting gold prices include ongoing purchases by central banks, concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, rising U.S. debt levels, and fears of currency devaluation.
"Supportive long-term factors remain in play, but we expect a more limited range and volatile movements and will be looking for improved technical indicators to confirm the resumption of the bullish trend. In the meantime, gold continues to play its role as a portfolio diversifier," added Lerner.
Overall, precious metals are expected to remain sensitive to geopolitical events and changes in monetary policy in the coming years, according to a Reuters report.