The biggest consensus on BTC this year is actually the lack of consensus; everyone says they don't understand BTC anymore. Here’s a rundown of the views from some factions I've observed, and you can pick your side:
1. The Macro Economic Faction (Bullish in the Mid-Term, Mixed by Year-End)
> Betting on significant progress of the Transparency Bill in May, feeling bullish.
> Betting on the meeting between the two heads of state in May will reduce geopolitical risk and boost risk appetite, feeling optimistic.
> Betting on the Republicans holding key seats in the midterm elections, optimistic for the year-end; betting on the Democrats regaining the House and Trump's agenda being blocked, pessimistic for the year-end.
2. The Mysterious Crew (Extremely Pessimistic for Year-End)
> The 365 and 1065-day cycle theory (as shown in the chart below) has accurately predicted the tops and bottoms of BTC over the past 10 years. The prediction of the peak in early October 2025 last year has been remarkably accurate, and the next bottom points to early October this year.
> The Intuitive Crew: My friends I’ve talked to, who have experienced at least one market cycle of both bull and bear, unanimously believe that in Q3-4, there will be more than one major project/exchange/crypto capital collapse, a chain reaction.
3. **The Chartist Crew (Short-Term Bearish)**
> BTC is waiting for the price to hit the Daily Vegas Channel or EMA200 and the bottom of the previous range structure, around 80,000, to fill the CME futures gap before setting up long-term short positions.
4. **The KOL Crew (Diverse Opinions)**
> BTC: Short at 82k, 80k is a fake breakout.
> BTC will definitely not reach 80k, don't even think about it.
> BTC will bounce back to the 100,000 level.
> "I no longer understand cryptocurrency, I'm going to play the US stock market and use AI."
> "I made 100,000 from 100 USDT using AI trading. Give me the entry fee of 399 USDT and I'll teach you how to trade event contracts with a high win rate."
I'm really curious to see which side people are backing 🤣