The Arab monarchies, primarily Saudi Arabia, find themselves caught in someone else's conflict, drawn into a war they didn't choose and can't control. By engaging in the conflict with Iran, Trump overlooked the interests of his key allies in the Gulf, writes Bloomberg.

If earlier Riyadh itself called on the USA to strike Iran's nuclear program, now the priorities have changed. The kingdom has made a colossal bet on economic diversification (the 'Vision 2030' plan), for the success of which stability in the region is vital.

The trap of two scenarios

Today, Saudi Arabia finds itself in a situation where both escalation and a weak truce promise catastrophe:

1. Escalation threat: Iran has already promised that in the event of American strikes, it will destroy energy and desalination facilities in the Gulf countries. Losing freshwater production facilities is even scarier for the Saudis than losing oil. Moreover, the Yemeni Houthis will enter a full-scale war. They will block the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, cutting off the Yanbu port — the main artery through which the Saudis currently export 7 million barrels of oil a day, bypassing the blocked Hormuz Strait.

2. Weak truce threat: Keeping the wounded but aggressive Iranian regime in power, which effectively controls the Hormuz Strait, will create a constant threat. If Israel decides to periodically launch preemptive strikes on Iran, it will provoke retaliatory attacks on the Gulf countries. In such conditions, investors will flee the kingdom, burying the economic plans of the crown prince.

Searching for new alliances

Fearing to become a powerless pawn in the security architecture being built by the USA, Israel, and Iran, Riyadh has started looking for alternative footholds. Saudi Arabia has reached out to other 'middle powers', forming an informal partnership with Turkey, Pakistan, and Egypt. Now this 'quartet' under Pakistan's leadership is trying to take on the role of peacemaker in the conflict.

Division and weakness of the coalition

However, the influence of these countries on giants like the USA and Iran is extremely limited. The situation is worsened by internal disagreements: for example, the UAE (unlike the Saudis) is more closely tied to Israel and would prefer to escalate to the end — even to the point of regime change in Tehran.

Conclusion

The war has become Trump's gamble, with the stakes being the economy and security of other states. Considering that Iran is not willing to make concessions, the smartest move Washington can make right now is to listen to the Saudis to find a way out of this deadlock with the least losses.

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