Current Price: 2.302400 USDT
24 Hour Change: -8.227%
Main Support Level: 2.249146 USDT (BOLL Lower Track) / 2.206300 USDT (24h Low)
Main Resistance Level: 2.484105 USDT (MA20/BOLL Middle Track) / 2.539600 USDT (24h High)
Current Trend: Clear stage of a rebound in a downward trend
Detailed Explanation:
Technical indicators collectively show that the market is in a state of severe overselling, but the bearish pattern has not fundamentally changed:
Moving Average System: Showing a typical bearish arrangement (MA5
MACD: DIF(-0.0693) is below DEA(-0.0381) maintaining a death cross state, but the green histogram line(-0.0312) is starting to converge, indicating a weakening of the downward momentum
BOLL: The price is running near the lower band (2.249146), with a %B value of only 0.09%, indicating that the price is at an extremely low position in the Bollinger Bands, which usually means an increased probability of an oversold rebound.
RSI: Each cycle's RSI (RSI6=29.58, RSI12=30.96) is in the oversold area, but has not yet reached extreme oversold levels (below 20), suggesting the possibility of further declines.
KDJ: K(20.01), D(24.05), J(11.93) are all in the oversold area, and the J value is close to the extreme oversold value of 10, indicating strong rebound demand.
Funds Flow Data Shows:
Funding Rate: A negative rate of -0.0186% indicates that bearish sentiment still dominates the contract market, but the absolute value of the rate is not large, and there is no extreme bearish situation.
Volume Changes: The trading volume of the last 4 four-hour K lines has significantly increased (from 301 million to 780 million to 575 million to 416 million), showing a volume increase during the price decline, which may indicate panic selling being cleared.
Funds Flow Data: Recently, there has been a significant net outflow of contract funds (24H net outflow of 23,630,000), but spot funds show net inflows in the 2H, 4H, and 6H time periods, indicating that there are funds buying at the current low.
Analysis Result
Direction: Cautiously Long (Oversold Rebound Strategy)
Entry Timing: Near the current price of 2.3024, a small long position can be tested, or a batch position can be built in the range of 2.28-2.25.
Stop Loss Setting: 2.18 USDT (5% stop loss margin, below the 24h low of 2.2063)
Target Price Levels: First target 2.45 (near MA10, return of 6.4%), second target 2.52 (near MA20, return of 9.4%)
Risk Warning: Although technical indicators show severe overselling, the overall bearish pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to operate with a light position and set strict stop losses. If the price falls below the support of 2.20, the long logic needs to be reassessed.
Note: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!
