Coinbase Institutional has published its Q2 outlook for crypto, landing on a neutral stance as markets head into the new quarter and institutional caution dominates. Why neutral? The firm points to persistent, elevated geopolitical uncertainty as the primary reason it’s avoiding big directional bets. That environment, Coinbase says, favors balanced risk-return positioning over aggressive long or short strategies. While idiosyncratic drivers—most notably regulatory moves and the rise of agentic AI—remain relevant, Coinbase believes macro and geopolitical risks are currently the dominant forces shaping market behavior. Some cautiously optimistic signs Despite the caution, Coinbase notes early signs that the macro picture could be improving as Q2 begins. Technical indicators across both crypto and equity markets have generally turned positive, and the firm thinks this could allow many crypto assets to find a near-term bottom and recover later in the quarter. That upside, however, is conditional: Coinbase highlights that a true shift in sentiment depends in part on whether a deal is struck with Iran. What investors are saying Between March 16 and April 7, 2026, Coinbase surveyed 91 global investors (29 institutions and 62 non-institutions). Key takeaways: - Sentiment has grown more pessimistic: about 82% of institutions and 70% of non-institutions now classify the market as in a bear or late-bear phase. - Despite that gloom, Bitcoin is widely seen as a value play: 75% of institutions and 61% of non-institutions consider BTC undervalued. - Expectations for Bitcoin dominance are shifting toward a “steady state.” The share of institutions expecting BTC dominance to rise dropped from 40% to 25%. Meanwhile, 54% of institutions now expect dominance to hold around current levels (up from 44%), and 21% of institutions anticipate a decline in dominance. Bottom line Coinbase Institutional’s Q2 read is one of guarded neutrality: policymakers, geopolitics, and macro trends will likely set the tone, while regulatory shifts and AI-related developments remain important but secondary. Investors appear more cautious overall, yet many still view Bitcoin as a buying opportunity if broader uncertainty eases. Featured image: OpenArt. Chart: TradingView.com. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news