It’s official. Today, Wednesday, April 29, is the final interest rate decision of the Jerome Powell era. After eight years at the helm, Powell is set to step down as Fed Chair on May 15.
The consensus expectation is a rate hold in the 3.50%–3.75% range, as inflation shows signs of persistence, partly driven by rising energy costs and recent oil price spikes.
This puts the Fed in a wait-and-see position, with limited room to act aggressively in either direction for now.
1. The Bigger Picture
This meeting carries more attention than usual, not just because of rates, but because it may be one of Powell’s final high-impact press conferences as Fed Chair.
Markets are already sensitive to the idea of leadership transition and what a more hawkish or dovish shift in tone could mean going forward.
For risk assets like Bitcoin, uncertainty around policy direction tends to create short-term hesitation, which may be contributing to the current consolidation around the $77K area.
2. What Matters Today
The key focus is the tone of the press conference:
Any hint of future rate cuts could support risk assets
A more cautious or inflation-focused tone could extend volatility
The reaction after the statement is likely more important than the decision itself.
3. How I’m Positioned
I’m staying defensive into the event.
Holding USDC for flexibility until the market digests the message feels more rational than trying to front-run a reaction.
Once clarity returns, I’ll reassess positioning depending on how BTC reacts to liquidity expectations.