XRP/USDT - Returning to Higher Timeframe Structure

On the 12H chart, price is clearly struggling to maintain strength above the recent highs. After the initial impulse move upward, we’ve entered a phase of distribution, followed by a gradual loss of momentum.

The key element here is the yellow trendline, representing a higher timeframe (weekly) channel. Price previously broke above this structure, but as often seen in the market, we are now likely heading back for a retest.

Currently, price is trading below important intraday levels:

DH / PDH are acting as resistance

The daily close below these levels signals weakness

Lower highs are forming, indicating a shift in short-term structure

This makes the current zone critical. As long as price remains below PDH and DH, bearish pressure remains dominant on the lower timeframes.

What stands out:

The move back toward the weekly trendline suggests a mean reversion toward higher timeframe structure

RSI shows weakening momentum, with no strong bullish divergence

Volume is not supporting upside moves > buyers appear weak

Scenario:

If price continues to reject from current resistance levels, a move lower toward the weekly trendline becomes increasingly likely. That area will be key:

A strong bounce could confirm continuation of the broader trend

A breakdown could signal a larger structural shift to the downside

In short:

The market is in a transitional phase. This is not a moment for blind longs, but for watching reactions at key levels. For now, the probability leans toward further downside into higher timeframe structure.

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