Post
#BTC情报局
US market opening, how's BTC looking??? $BTC
US market + BTC correlated movements (4.29 Beijing time 21:55)
1. Current BTC market
- BTC: around 77000, slight pullback over 24h after failing to break 81000
- ETH: around 2310, showing weakness as well
- Fear & Greed: 29 (extreme fear), funds are fully risk-averse ahead of the Fed
- Key support: 74600-75000; resistance: 77800-78500
2. Logic of US market → BTC correlation (fully linked)
1. Nasdaq AI crash = BTC facing pressure
US markets are seeing a crash in AI and semiconductors, with BTC being a high-risk growth asset, leading funds to flee for safety
2. Oil prices skyrocketing + inflation rebound → Fed delaying rate cuts
Stronger dollar and tightening liquidity are bearish for Bitcoin, capping its rebound potential
3. Fed decision in the early morning (Beijing 30th at 2 AM)
- Powell leaning hawkish → both US markets and BTC drop significantly
- Powell leaning dovish → US markets rebound, BTC spikes
- No action → wide fluctuations, full volatility
3. Short-term correlation assessment
- Nasdaq dropping → high probability BTC follows suit
- Dow Jones resisting drops, energy strengthening → BTC consolidating and bottoming
- Before and after the decision: both directions can see wild spikes and drops, strong correlation
- Short-term BTC: failed breakouts + long positions being liquidated, first defend the 75000 support, breaking it could lead to a cascade of liquidations
4. Simplified operational reference
- Fed hawkish: bearish on BTC, defend at 74500
- Fed dovish: bullish on BTC, break 78500 to see a rebound
- In a volatile market: don’t chase longs at high levels, avoid shorts unless support is broken
US market opening, how's BTC looking??? $BTC
US market + BTC correlated movements (4.29 Beijing time 21:55)
1. Current BTC market
- BTC: around 77000, slight pullback over 24h after failing to break 81000
- ETH: around 2310, showing weakness as well
- Fear & Greed: 29 (extreme fear), funds are fully risk-averse ahead of the Fed
- Key support: 74600-75000; resistance: 77800-78500
2. Logic of US market → BTC correlation (fully linked)
1. Nasdaq AI crash = BTC facing pressure
US markets are seeing a crash in AI and semiconductors, with BTC being a high-risk growth asset, leading funds to flee for safety
2. Oil prices skyrocketing + inflation rebound → Fed delaying rate cuts
Stronger dollar and tightening liquidity are bearish for Bitcoin, capping its rebound potential
3. Fed decision in the early morning (Beijing 30th at 2 AM)
- Powell leaning hawkish → both US markets and BTC drop significantly
- Powell leaning dovish → US markets rebound, BTC spikes
- No action → wide fluctuations, full volatility
3. Short-term correlation assessment
- Nasdaq dropping → high probability BTC follows suit
- Dow Jones resisting drops, energy strengthening → BTC consolidating and bottoming
- Before and after the decision: both directions can see wild spikes and drops, strong correlation
- Short-term BTC: failed breakouts + long positions being liquidated, first defend the 75000 support, breaking it could lead to a cascade of liquidations
4. Simplified operational reference
- Fed hawkish: bearish on BTC, defend at 74500
- Fed dovish: bullish on BTC, break 78500 to see a rebound
- In a volatile market: don’t chase longs at high levels, avoid shorts unless support is broken
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.