BTC KOL 张先生

#BTC情报局
US market opening, how's BTC looking??? $BTC

US market + BTC correlated movements (4.29 Beijing time 21:55)

1. Current BTC market

- BTC: around 77000, slight pullback over 24h after failing to break 81000
- ETH: around 2310, showing weakness as well
- Fear & Greed: 29 (extreme fear), funds are fully risk-averse ahead of the Fed
- Key support: 74600-75000; resistance: 77800-78500

2. Logic of US market → BTC correlation (fully linked)

1. Nasdaq AI crash = BTC facing pressure
US markets are seeing a crash in AI and semiconductors, with BTC being a high-risk growth asset, leading funds to flee for safety
2. Oil prices skyrocketing + inflation rebound → Fed delaying rate cuts
Stronger dollar and tightening liquidity are bearish for Bitcoin, capping its rebound potential
3. Fed decision in the early morning (Beijing 30th at 2 AM)

- Powell leaning hawkish → both US markets and BTC drop significantly
- Powell leaning dovish → US markets rebound, BTC spikes
- No action → wide fluctuations, full volatility

3. Short-term correlation assessment

- Nasdaq dropping → high probability BTC follows suit
- Dow Jones resisting drops, energy strengthening → BTC consolidating and bottoming
- Before and after the decision: both directions can see wild spikes and drops, strong correlation
- Short-term BTC: failed breakouts + long positions being liquidated, first defend the 75000 support, breaking it could lead to a cascade of liquidations

4. Simplified operational reference

- Fed hawkish: bearish on BTC, defend at 74500
- Fed dovish: bullish on BTC, break 78500 to see a rebound
- In a volatile market: don’t chase longs at high levels, avoid shorts unless support is broken

#BTC☀️ In the crypto space, there are definitely some shady characters. Self-proclaimed gurus, donning their fake robes, bragging about pumping the market for the newbies. It's a disgrace to the serenity of the three realms! What do you all think??

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$BTC Where there's people, there's the crypto jungle.
Hanging out in the Binance Square livestream is like visiting a brothel, reminiscent of the old days in Hong Kong's first floor spots, especially in non-tech trading streams. It's more like a stage performance with traders showcasing their skills, jamming and bantering, acting out like madmen, while the audience, a bunch of clueless noobs, gets deeper into the act. You've got MeowMeow姐 and DogDog哥, all sweet-talk and flashy moves, coming up to pump their bags. There's even a thirty-something married guy, wearing multiple community aliases, with an elderly parent and two young kids to feed, lacking responsibility and a full grasp of reality, trading contracts and losing more by the day. The livestream has no one to guide him, just seasoned traders laughing it off. Adults can only make choices, but can't be re-educated. I just hope those who don’t understand the tech, or are new to the crypto scene, only earn what they can comprehend and stay away from areas they don't get. The 80/20 rule remains unchanged; may Binance thrive, may traders be more disciplined and steady, and may they go further.

Public figure, Cheng x Cheng, Fu Qing, the whole square is a big scoop

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The mountains and rivers stretch for miles, ringing out.

In a nutshell: Short-term strong risk aversion rally, medium-term high volatility with a bearish bias, overall sentiment is like a 'scared bird' with a leverage squeeze.

1. Key Events (4/26)

- The US-Iran peace talks have completely broken down, with the Iranian delegation leaving early and the US canceling their itinerary.
- Risks in the Strait of Hormuz are skyrocketing (30% of global oil transport), with the US military deploying more aircraft carriers and tightening the blockade.
- Core disagreements remain unresolved: the US wants Iran to permanently open the strait and abandon its nuclear program; Iran wants the blockade lifted and compensation.

2. Three-layer impact on the crypto sentiment

1) Short-term: Risk aversion rally, 'digital gold' narrative takes precedence

- After the news, BTC rallied 2% in half an hour, breaking 77000/78000, peaking at 78200 (a two-month high).
- Major altcoins surged 3%+, with 76,000 liquidations and $800 million in settlements within 24 hours, short positions getting squeezed.
- Sentiment keywords: Panic buying, influx of safe-haven assets, short-squeeze.

2) Medium-term: High volatility, bearish dominance, risk asset attributes returning

- Oil prices spiking → inflation expectations rising → Fed rate cut expectations pushed back → funds withdrawing from high-risk assets.
- BTC resembles 'high-risk tech stocks' more, with its safe-haven properties suppressed by inflation and tightening liquidity.
- Sentiment keywords: Selling at highs, weak rebounds, oscillating downward.

3) Funds and behavior: Leverage contraction, weak sentiment

- Both long and short positions getting wrecked: amplified volatility → chain liquidations → liquidity deteriorating → further amplified volatility.
- Institutions are on the sidelines, while retail sentiment is emotional: running when good news hits, instant sell-offs on bad news.

3. Conclusion

- Sentiment: Short-term risk aversion is high, medium-term risk aversion, overall high volatility.
- Direction: Primarily short on rebounds, no longing; the risk aversion rally is a pulse, hard to sustain.
- Risk control: Positioning ≤ 1/5, strict stop-loss, avoid leverage squeezes.

#btc走勢
15-minute BTC, morning star pattern, looking for a reversal

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Reaching for the moon while diving into the depths of the sea. Live stream in progress.

#BTC☀️ Market Sentiment
International crude oil saw a rise on the 27th, mainly due to the unsuccessful second ceasefire talks between the US and Iran. The closure status of the Strait of Hormuz remains, and the military conflict in the Middle East hasn't been diplomatically resolved, leading to escalating war tensions. Market sentiment is once again fluctuating, causing a downward trend in BTC prices. $BTC

$BTC #比特币突破7.9万美元
#BTC market sentiment

Is #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 about to go short in an hour?