The market begins the month with a weakened structure and clear signs of buyer exhaustion. Despite the widespread optimism, the charts do not yet support a solid bullish continuation.
In daily and weekly timeframes, the price shows a progressive loss of momentum:
• The RSI remains below the strength line without positive divergence.
• The short-term moving averages (20 and 50) are beginning to cross in a bearish manner, showing a deceleration in buying pressure.
• Volume continues to decline, suggesting a lack of institutional interest and a predominance of short-term speculative trades.
From a macroeconomic reading, the situation does not favor an immediate recovery either:
• The Fed maintains a cautious stance regarding potential rate cuts, and global liquidity remains limited.
• The dollar (DXY) remains strong, putting pressure on risk assets.
• The derivatives market reflects an increase in long leveraged positions, which raises the risk of massive liquidations in any correction.
Technically, the range between $110,000 and $120,000 continues to act as a distribution zone, and as long as BTC does not break strongly above $122,000 with increasing volume, the bias remains neutral-bearish.
The most likely scenario in the short term is a new shake-up or 'tipping' to clean up the excess leverage and create a healthier base before attempting a true bullish trend.
The problem is that many continue to expect the 'promised rise', but cycles do not accelerate due to expectations, but rather due to liquidity and technical confirmations.
For now, there is not enough institutional strength to sustain a sustainable rally.
Conclusion:
BTC could retest support zones between $86,000 and $98,000, and it would not be far-fetched to see an extension to $80,000 if the market continues to lose momentum.
It is time to manage risk, not to chase narratives.
