Assume you are a turkey.

The farmer comes to feed you every day, rain or shine.

On the 1st day you are a bit nervous, by the 10th day you are relaxed, and by the 100th day you are sure that humans are friends.

By the 1000th day, you have mastered statistics.

You have plotted the weight gain curve, calculated the standard deviation of feeding, and drawn the scientific conclusion: humans are 100% friendly to turkeys, supported by 1000 data points.

On the 1001st day, you are even more convinced of the laws governing this world.

That day is the night before Thanksgiving.

The next day you are served on the table.

This is a story from the book (Black Swan), and also the legendary 'Black Swan Event'.

Why use black swans as a metaphor?

Because before the discovery of Australia, Europeans believed that all swans were white.

This belief was confirmed by countless observations.

But just seeing one black swan is enough to overturn a millennium of conclusions.

"Black swan" thus refers to events that simultaneously meet three characteristics:

First, it is unexpected, outside of what is usually anticipated.

Second, it produces extreme impact.

Third, although unexpected, people will concoct reasons for it in hindsight, making it seem explainable and predictable.

In short: rarity, extreme impact, and hindsight predictability.

And each of us is that turkey that does not know about black swan events.

We believe our jobs are stable, housing prices will rise, relationships will last, and tomorrow will be similar to today.

The experience of 1000 days leads us to believe that the 1001st day will be the same.

But history never operates that way.

Taleb himself has seen heaven turn into hell.

He was born into an aristocratic family in Lebanon, a place known as "the paradise of the Middle East"—French culture, Mediterranean climate, Christians and Muslims coexisting peacefully for 13 centuries.

Taxi drivers were very friendly, which was clear evidence of paradise.

The civil war broke out in 1975.

In a few months, paradise turned into hell.

13 centuries of peace vanished into thin air within weeks.

The war lasted for over 15 years.

What was even more shocking was people's reactions.

Everyone said, "The war will only last a few days," and then waited in hotels in Cyprus and Greece to return home.

More than 15 years later, some people are still waiting.

Taleb's uncle remembers that 30 years ago when wealthy Palestinians fled to Lebanon, they also thought it was just a temporary measure, yet 60 years later they still live there.

But when Taleb asked, "Will we be the same?" his uncle said, "No, definitely not, the situation here is different."

We always feel that "this time is different."

What is scarier than the black swan itself is our blindness to it.

History does not crawl; it jumps.

It leaps from one fault line to another.

But our brains refuse to accept this.

Here are two interesting examples to prove it.

In the summer of 1982, major American banks almost lost all the money they had earned since opening—total profits, wiped out in one summer.

South American countries collectively defaulted.

Those bankers wore suits and ties, releasing quarterly reports to prove how "stable" they were.

Decades of data showed: the bad loan rate was low, and risks were controllable.

Until all customers simultaneously could not pay.

Then there's my favorite example.

In 1998, Long-Term Capital Management collapsed.

This company had two Nobel laureates in economics managing risks with the mathematical models they invented.

The model said: Our strategy is extremely safe, the probability of losing it all is negligible.

Yet a crisis occurred, and within a few weeks, bankruptcy followed.

Their model was based on a "bell curve"—assuming market fluctuations followed a normal distribution, extreme events were extremely rare.

But the reality is a "fat-tailed distribution," where black swans are far more frequent than the mathematical model predicted.

The most ironic part is: these two individuals won the Nobel Prize precisely because they invented this options pricing formula, assuming black swans did not exist.

The year after they won the award, the fund managed using this formula went bankrupt.

Taleb says the problem lies in our assumption that the world is "mean-driven."

In areas like height and weight, extreme values are not significant; no one can be taller than three meters, and the average can explain the situation.

But in areas like wealth, war, financial markets, and technological innovation, everything is dominated by extreme events.

Bill Gates' wealth exceeds the total of one hundred million ordinary people.

We always try to understand a "mean-driven" world with an "average" mindset.

Once we realize this, the problem changes.

It is not about "how to predict black swans"—that is impossible.

Rather, it is about how to survive in a world of black swans and even become stronger.

Taleb's answer is in two steps.

Step one: recognize the two extremes.

Not all black swans are bad; there are two extremes.

Negative black swans—bad surprises.

The 2008 financial crisis, the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

The 9/11 terrorist attacks, the collapse of the Twin Towers.

The stock market crash of 1987, where it dropped 23% in one day.

Positive black swans—good surprises.

The invention of the internet, no one anticipated it would change the world.

The discovery of penicillin, originally an experimental failure.

(Harry Potter)'s success was rejected by 12 publishers.

Distinguishing them is crucial because the coping strategies are completely opposite.

Step two: respond accordingly.

For negative black swans, defensive; for positive black swans, offensive.

First, let's talk about defense.

The most concrete method is the barbell strategy mentioned in (Antifragile).

Put 85%–90% of your assets in extremely conservative places (cash, government bonds), and invest the remaining 10%–15% in high-risk, high-reward ventures.

With this allocation, you won't fear either type of black swan.

When a negative black swan comes—market crash, economic crisis, you will lose at most that 10%, while 90% of your capital remains intact.

When a positive black swan comes—if a project you invested in unexpectedly explodes, the returns could be dozens or even hundreds of times.

When bad things happen, your losses are limited.

When good things happen, your gains are significant.

Never adopt a "moderate risk" strategy.

It may seem stable, but in reality, it will be wiped out by negative black swans and won’t earn big when positive black swans arrive.

This applies not only to investments but also to life.

When choosing an industry, the key point is: is the unexpected beneficial or harmful to you?

Positive black swan industries—film, publishing, research, venture capital.

Making a movie, at worst you lose a few million; at best you make billions.

Publishing a book, at worst you lose printing costs; at best you earn thousands of times in royalties (this is also why I choose content creation).

Conducting an experiment, at worst it fails; at best it changes history.

Limited losses, unlimited gains.

Negative black swan industries—bank loans, catastrophe insurance.

Banks lend money, at best they earn some interest; at worst they lose everything.

Catastrophe insurance, at best they collect premiums; at worst they go bankrupt.

Limited gains, unlimited losses.

Therefore, we should move towards positive black swan industries and stay away from negative black swan industries.

Now let’s talk about offense.

For positive black swans, the key is to seize opportunities.

Opportunities are far fewer than you think.

If an important person extends an invitation to you, cancel all your original plans.

This door may never open again.

Live in big cities, attend gatherings, try repeatedly.

Because you never know which attempt will succeed, but once you succeed, it is enough to compensate for all failures.

Finally, remember: do not predict, but prepare.

Do not try to predict when and from where the next black swan will come.

That is impossible.

What you need to do is to make yourself capable of resisting the impact of negative black swans while also reaping the maximum benefits from positive black swans.

Focus your energy on enhancing resilience, not on prediction.

Taleb himself does just that.

In the 1987 stock market crash, while others lost everything, he gained huge returns from small investments.

He never predicts when the black swan will come.

He only knows: fragile systems will collapse when black swans arrive.

And what he can do is ensure that he does not become that turkey.

But rather become the one who clears the farm the night before Thanksgiving.

Become the one who is prepared when others panic.

Become the one who can say when the black swan arrives, "I have been waiting for you for a long time."

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