11.3 Ether Market Analysis
Current Situation: Bears are in Control
The market is quite clear; the bears have completely taken over. The previous high at 3914 was sharply rejected, and the daily chart closed with an unsightly long upper shadow, indicating significant pressure above 3900. Subsequently, the hourly chart continuously closed with bearish candles, directly breaking through the important psychological level of 3800 with increased volume, forming a short-term downward channel, clearly indicating a bearish trend.
Key Levels: Just look here
Want to short/close positions:
Around 3850: The first resistance level, also where the moving averages are pressing down, if the price rebounds here without strength, consider going short.
3900-3915: Strong resistance zone, previous highs and important moving averages are here, if there is indeed a rebound to this level, it would be a more reliable short point.
Want to buy the dip/catch a rebound:
Around 3750: A bit below the previous low, this is a psychological support level, if it drops here, there might be a small rebound, but only play with light positions.
Around 3700: True strong support, coinciding with previous important lows, bulls might organize a decent counterattack here.
How to operate?
Main Idea (Shorting):
Wait for the price to rebound to around 3850, and when you see weakness in the rise and signs of stagnation, go short.
Set a stop loss above 3920; if it breaks, admit defeat.
Targets are first at 3780, then at 3750.
Secondary Idea (Catching a Rebound):
If the price quickly drops to around 3700, and shows signs of a reversal like a pin bar or bullish engulfing, you can take a light position for a rebound.
The stop loss must be set below 3680; if it breaks, you have to run.
Rebound targets are at 3800-3850.
Final Reminder:
Don’t catch falling knives barehanded during a decline; patiently wait for a rebound before shorting. If you want to catch a bottom, remember that it's a counter-trend operation, so be sure to use light positions and have a good stop loss. Currently, in this market, trading in the direction of the bears will be less stressful.
