郑百亿策略
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The "black swan" event that may occur on November 5, 2025, refers to the U.S. Supreme Court hearing the legality of a series of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
The core of this judicial showdown is the Trump administration's invocation of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act as the legal foundation for the tariffs, while mainstream legal opinion holds that the government's legal basis is weak, with a high likelihood of losing the case. If the final ruling deems the tariffs illegal, the White House may face the predicament of refunding tens of billions of dollars in taxes, leading to a dual chaos in trade and finance; if deemed legal, the president will gain near "monarch"-like powers to unilaterally impose significant economic measures without Congressional approval. Regardless of the outcome of this ruling, it could have a significant impact on the economic and political landscape of the United States and even the world, which is why it is viewed as a potential "black swan" event.
The core of this judicial showdown is the Trump administration's invocation of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act as the legal foundation for the tariffs, while mainstream legal opinion holds that the government's legal basis is weak, with a high likelihood of losing the case. If the final ruling deems the tariffs illegal, the White House may face the predicament of refunding tens of billions of dollars in taxes, leading to a dual chaos in trade and finance; if deemed legal, the president will gain near "monarch"-like powers to unilaterally impose significant economic measures without Congressional approval. Regardless of the outcome of this ruling, it could have a significant impact on the economic and political landscape of the United States and even the world, which is why it is viewed as a potential "black swan" event.
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