Yesterday I finished writing an article: Is crypto over? Is it now the end of the bull and the beginning of the bear?
At one point, it fell below the psychological threshold of $100,000, marking the first time since June 23 that this critical support level has been breached.
This crash has caused 470,000 people to be liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, with liquidation amounts exceeding $2 billion, of which long positions account for 85% of the losses.
When a large number of long positions are liquidated, the market passively triggers a chain reaction of selling, amplifying the pressure and causing prices to drop further, forming a typical 'stampede effect.' This crash is not caused by a specific black swan event, but rather an 'automatic liquidation' due to the market's own excessive leverage and over-inflated bubble.
Yesterday afternoon, the big coin was still at 10w4, and Ethereum was still at 3500.
Simply put, the current market situation:
Bitcoin has not broken the 9.7-9.8 trend line, temporarily not looking at lower positions.
Ethereum has also reached the interchange between the multiple-day line resistance and support, as well as the monthly Bollinger middle track.
The current position can build a position to rebound in the market.
Because the liquidity in the US is currently a mess due to the shutdown. This issue will be alleviated after the shutdown.
Once it ends, and temporary funding is implemented, the first thing that happens is the negative factors are lifted, uncertainty begins to dissipate, and the typical path for the market should be emotional recovery first, followed by capital replenishment. This is not a whim; looking at historical data, from 1995 to 1996, the US government was shut down for 21 days, and the S&P rose about 4.0% in the month following the shutdown. In 2013, the US government was shut down for 17 days, and the month after rose about 4.5%. From 2018 to 2019, there was a record-breaking 35-day shutdown, and the month after the end saw the S&P rise by 5%. All these historical data tell us that once the shutdown ends, the probability of market rebound will be very high.
So this is a good time to pick up some chips.
Speaking of on-chain:
The hot topics these days are all around Giggle, and Sister One and CZ have also mentioned it, transitioning from one-sided contributions to mutual efforts.
Critical wash trading 300M——40M has caused countless people to suffer losses, cutting losses and blowing up, even those holding positions above 1M should not be washed off the car.
Binance supports donations + destruction with both hands.
Revive Giggle and talk about Binance life, if Giggle dies, life will only get worse.
So, now is not just about trading a coin, but making directional choices at a critical juncture. The downward space is limited, while the upward space is considerable. This odds ratio is worth pondering.
I personally choose to stand on the side of 'can be revived.' The original intention of 'charity education' behind it. This concept is global and is being watched by CZ and Binance. If the original intention of charity education remains unchanged, GIGGLE will not go to zero.
