#ETH is more likely to enter a period of high volatility and high risk, with a downside risk. The market is currently in a tug-of-war between "news" and "capital". Outflows from ETFs indicate a short-term bearish outlook from institutions, while large investors buying on dips and the development of industry fundamentals indicate a long-term bullish view. This divergence leads to fluctuations.

Significant downside risk: The extreme conditions in the derivatives market (extremely high funding rates and open interest) are the largest risk points. It is like a "powder keg"; any negative news or minor price corrections could trigger a chain liquidation, causing prices to drop rapidly in the short term.

Catalysts for future trends: Attention needs to be paid to factors that could break the current balance, such as whether ETF funds can shift back to net inflows, whether the leverage in derivatives can healthily decrease, or if there are significant industry positive/negative news.