$ETH Trading Strategy
Rebound Long Position: Enter at $3,300, Target $3,400, Stop Loss $3,285, R:R ≈ 3.1, medium probability.
Breakdown Short Position: Short if it drops below $3,285, Target $3,200, Stop Loss $3,350, R:R ≈ 1.6, high probability.
Position Suggestion ≤2%, closely monitor funding rates and OI changes.
Reasons are as follows:
1. Macroeconomic headwinds: The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and the US government shutdown triggered a -12% pullback this week, but the ETF has still seen a cumulative net inflow of $9.6 billion this year, indicating resilient institutional allocation.
2. Strong fundamentals: Ethereum's Fusaka upgrade goes live on 12-03, with TVL still accounting for 49% of DeFi; there were 31,869 active developers in the past year, leading other public chains.
3. On-chain/Technical aspects: Trading volume and active addresses fell about 20% last week, but exchange reserves decreased by 3.5% over 30 days, with whales purchasing $1.37 billion in three days, indicating accumulation on dips.
4. Short-term structure: Daily RSI at 33 enters the oversold zone, key support at $3,285; if it breaks down or tests $3,200; if it holds and rebounds with volume, target $3,400-3,474.
