✅ What’s working
$BTC is trading in the ~$100,000-$110,000 range, which keeps it well above many earlier support zones.
Aurpay
+2
CoinCodex
+2
On-chain data show accumulation by long-term holders and a reduction in exchange reserves, suggesting less selling pressure from “weak hands”.
Unocoin Blog
+1
Historical patterns point to November being one of Bitcoin’s stronger months: average returns in past Novembers since 2013 have been ~+30-40%.
AInvest
+1
Macro tailwinds: easing monetary policy, improved liquidity, and institutional interest (e.g., ETFs, corporate treasuries) are cited as upside catalysts.
The Currency Analytics
+1
⚠️ What’s risky
Technicals are blinking caution: BTC is trading below its 200-day moving average, a key long-term trend line—this often signals risk of further downside.
CoinCodex
+1
October ended red (for the first time since 2018): BTC lost ~3-4% which breaks its “Uptober” streak and has raised some caution among investors.
The Economic Times
+1
Key support zones around ~$104,000-$106,000 are under watch. A break below could open a deeper pullback.
Unocoin Blog
+1
Macro & geopolitical risks remain: rate-cut uncertainty, regulatory changes, global liquidity constraints. These could quickly turn sentiment.
🎯 My Outlook
Base case (55-60% chance): Bitcoin stabilises around ~$105K-$110K, consolidates, and then resumes an upward move toward ~$120K-$130K later in Nov/Dec, if November’s seasonality plays out.
Bull case (~25% chance): Strong ETF inflows + positive macro surprise push BTC above ~$130K, perhaps setting a new local high toward ~$140K.
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