The global economic situation is one of deceleration, with projected growth around 2.8% for 2025, according to the United Nations. This slow pace is due to factors such as trade tensions, high debt, and geopolitical uncertainty, despite inflation decreasing and interest rates potentially easing. The outlook varies by region, with stronger growth expected in India and parts of Africa, while developed economies face a slowdown, as indicated in reports from the IMF and the World Bank.
Key factors affecting the global economy
Deceleration of growth:
Modest growth is projected, below pre-pandemic levels, affected by trade barriers and political uncertainty.
Reduction of inflation:
Inflation is decreasing, which could allow for future monetary policy easing, although the priority remains to reduce it to established targets.
Trade and geopolitical tensions:
Trade restrictions and geopolitical volatility are significant risks weighing on global economic growth.
High debt:
High levels of debt, especially in developing countries, limit funding capacity and growth.
Regional outlooks
Risks and challenges
Political uncertainty:
Political volatility and uncertainty around policies can negatively affect future growth.
Lower growth:
Lower-than-expected growth in major economies and the increase in trade restrictions could further reduce economic prospects.
Impact of climate change:
Extreme weather events also pose a downside risk to growth.
In summary, the global economy faces a landscape of slow growth and filled with uncertainties, despite improvements in inflation control. International cooperation and the implementation of appropriate policies will be crucial to foster more stable and equitable growth, according to the UN.