Recent analysis of ETH and BTC contract trends and operational logic

From the current 4-hour candlestick chart, the recent trends of ETH and BTC show characteristics of 'sharp decline followed by consolidation and recovery', remaining in a mid-term adjustment cycle, with short-term attention needed on the effectiveness of breaking key resistance levels.

1. ETH contract trend: Weak rebound after overselling

ETH experienced a deep dive from November 4 to 5, with prices quickly falling from 3919 to around 3056, a decline of nearly 47%, and then entered a consolidation and recovery phase. Currently, on the 4-hour chart, prices are oscillating around 3560, with two signals to note:

1. Moving averages and trend: The 7-day, 30-day, and 144-day moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, and the price is near the 7-day moving average of 3558, indicating a weak short-term rebound;

2. Volume and indicators: During the rebound, trading volume did not significantly increase, and although MACD shows a golden cross, the red bars continue to shrink, indicating insufficient willingness to enter the market, suggesting that the rebound may be a correction in the downward process.

In operations, the short-term resistance level for ETH is 3600. If it cannot effectively break through, there remains a risk of further declines after the rebound; if it stabilizes above 3600 or approaches the 30-day moving average near 3700, but before the mid-term trend changes, the main strategy should be to short on rebounds.

2. BTC contract trend: Relatively resilient but still under pressure

The adjustment range of BTC is relatively gentler than that of ETH, having fallen from 111130 to 98928 on November 4, a decline of about 11%, and currently oscillating around 105600. Its 4-hour chart shows the following characteristics:

1. Trend and pressure: Also below the 7-day and 30-day moving averages, the 7-day moving average near 103800 forms short-term resistance, with key resistance above at 107000.

2. Volume and correlation: Trading volume slightly increased during the rebound phase, but the momentum after the MACD golden cross is insufficient, and it is highly correlated with ETH's trend, making it difficult to develop an independent market in the short term.

The resilience of BTC stems from its market liquidity advantage, but it is still affected by the overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. If it cannot break through the resistance level of 107000, it is likely to continue the oscillating downward trend.

3. Risks of contract operations and strategic recommendations

The current market is in a contradictory phase of 'oversold rebound + mid-term adjustment', and contract operations need to pay attention to:

1. Position control: Regardless of long or short positions, it is recommended that positions do not exceed 30%, to avoid extreme volatility after breaking key levels;

2. Key points: ETH uses 3600 as the boundary for long and short, while BTC uses 107000 as the boundary. If it breaks, one can follow the trend with light positions; if not, the main strategy should be to short on rebounds.