ETH's counter-trend pullback holds secrets! With a government shutdown probability of 92%, how can players seize this 'golden pit'?
Hello everyone! I am Jin Zhu.
Dear friends, today we won’t talk nonsense, let’s get straight to the point! ETH is currently 3561 USD, on the surface it looks like bears are dominant, but the technical indicators hide a 'reversal' signal. Combined with the latest news that the probability of a U.S. government shutdown has soared to 92% from Polymarket, this market trend might be more promising than you think!
News breakdown
The probability of a U.S. government shutdown has soared to 92%, seemingly unrelated to the cryptocurrency market, but hidden behind it is the 'invisible hand' of market sentiment—when traditional financial markets fluctuate due to political uncertainty, funds often flow into safe-haven assets or highly volatile targets, and ETH, as the leading cryptocurrency, may become the 'scapegoat' for short-term capital games. However, don't panic; this wave of emotional influence is mostly short-term, and the long-term trend relies on technical factors.
Technical affirmation.
On the hourly chart, ETH is currently above the key support level of 3561.98, with a second line of defense around 3520. Although there are signs of a 'death cross' in the moving averages, the yellow dual lines still remain above the zero axis, indicating that the bulls have not completely surrendered. More importantly, the trading volume shows a 'volume breakout' signal — this suggests that there may be a short-term upward correction targeting the resistance level of 3750!
Jinzhu's viewpoint:
From a technical perspective, ETH has support around 3561, and in the short term, it may bounce to the resistance level of 3750. The moving averages have crossed but have not broken the zero axis, indicating insufficient downward momentum.
Players remember: If the support level holds, you can try going long with a light position, and reduce positions near the resistance level. The line chart shows whether this is a 'continuation of the downtrend' or a 'starting point for a rebound.' The key is whether the trading volume can continue to expand! Remember, opportunities are only available for those who are prepared; I'll give you a more specific explanation of the points in the village!
Direction of operation.
Players holding ETH, pay attention! Although the overall outlook is bearish today, there is a short-term opportunity for a pullback.
For aggressive traders: Try going long with a light position in the range of 3520-3561, set a stop-loss at 3500, and target around 3700;
For conservative traders: Continue to hold, but closely monitor the resistance level at 3750. If there is a breakout with volume, you can increase your position; otherwise, reduce positions at highs.
For those with open positions: Don't rush to chase highs or sell lows; patiently wait for a pullback near 3520 before considering entry.
Is this pullback a 'golden pit' or a 'trap'? It mainly depends on how you operate. Want to get specific points and real-time strategies at the first moment? Hurry up and follow Jinzhu to unlock more exclusive content in the village! Jinzhu will provide real-time analysis in the village and give the current best entry points.
